Projected impacts of climate change on a continent-wide protected area network

Authors

  • David G. Hole,

    1. Institute of Ecosystem Science, School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, UK
    2. Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International, 2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500, Arlington, VA 22202, USA
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Stephen G. Willis,

    Corresponding author
    1. Institute of Ecosystem Science, School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, UK
      *E-mail: s.g.willis@durham.ac.uk
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Deborah J. Pain,

    1. Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire SG19 2DL, UK
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Lincoln D. Fishpool,

    1. BirdLife International, Wellbrook Court, Girton Road, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire CB3 0NA, UK
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Stuart H. M. Butchart,

    1. BirdLife International, Wellbrook Court, Girton Road, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire CB3 0NA, UK
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Yvonne C. Collingham,

    1. Institute of Ecosystem Science, School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, UK
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Carsten Rahbek,

    1. Center for Macroecology, Department of Biology, University of Copenhagen, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Brian Huntley

    1. Institute of Ecosystem Science, School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, UK
    Search for more papers by this author

  • Present address: Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust, Slimbridge, Gloucestershire GL2 7BT, UK

*E-mail: s.g.willis@durham.ac.uk

Abstract

Despite widespread concern, the continuing effectiveness of networks of protected areas under projected 21st century climate change is uncertain. Shifts in species’ distributions could mean these resources will cease to afford protection to those species for which they were originally established. Using modelled projected shifts in the distributions of sub-Saharan Africa’s entire breeding avifauna, we show that species turnover across the continent’s Important Bird Area (IBA) network is likely to vary regionally and will be substantial at many sites (> 50% at 42% of IBAs by 2085 for priority species). Persistence of suitable climate space across the network as a whole, however, is notably high, with 88–92% of priority species retaining suitable climate space in ≥ 1 IBA(s) in which they are currently found. Only 7–8 priority species lose climatic representation from the network. Hence, despite the likelihood of significant community disruption, we demonstrate that rigorously defined networks of protected areas can play a key role in mitigating the worst impacts of climate change on biodiversity.

Ancillary