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Figure S1 Map of the Iberian Peninsula showing site infection status and the conditional prevalence as predicted by model 4TLR (Table S2). Green cross = outbreak of fatal chytridiomycosis. The heavily shaded regions are national parks.

Figure S2 Map and caterpillar plot showing site infection status and the conditional prevalence as predicted by model 4TLR in the Cordillera-Cantabrica (CC). 95% Bayesian credible intervals are shown. The heavily shaded regions are national parks.

Table S1 Summary statistics for the infection status of sites within and across the three regions (Pyrenees (PY), Cordillera Cantabrica (CC), a diffuse NW-SE band running across central Spain including the Sierra de Guadarrama mountain range (CE)). When both infected and non-infected sites are considered together (total) the means, minima and maxima are provided for the observed cases, the samples sizes and the prevalence of infection (Prev.). The median is not provided because it is zero in most cases. Similar statistics are provided for the infected sites only. Given the highly skewed distribution of the observed number of positives, the median (instead of the mean) is reported.

Table S2 Model fit for the nested models as determined by the BIC and AIC. Any environmental covariates are indicated in parentheses. (T=TempMin,E=Easting, R=SRadAv). Model 1 contains intercepts only, model 2 contains nested developmental-stage effects with no environmental covariates, model 3 contains environmental covariates in the absence of developmental-stage effects, model 4 contains environmental covariates and nested developmental stage effects.

Table S3 Parameter estimates from model 4TLR. As detailed in Table 3, T=TempMin, E=Easting, R=SRadAv. In the assessment of developmental stage, the risk of infection for larvae (L) and adults (A) is considered relative to recent metamorphs (the outgroup). Covariates shown in bold are, based on 95% Bayesian credible intervals, significant. In this model the underlying conditional prevalence and probability of Bd presence is given by the expit of alpha[1] and alpha[2], respectively.

Table S4 Identity of Bd-isolates used for multi-locus sequence typing. Multiple isolates from a single specimen are indicated by underscores. The developmental stage (DS) of specimens is listed as larva (L) or recent metamorph (RM). With the exception of isolates VRP1 and VRP2, which were from Pelophylax perezi, all isolates were from Alytes obstetricans.

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