SEARCH

SEARCH BY CITATION

References

  • Burgman, M.A. (2005). Risks and Decisions for Conservation and Environmental Management. Cambridge University Press, New York.
  • Carey, J. & Burgman, M.A. (2008). Linguistic uncertainty in qualitative risk analysis and how to minimize it. Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci., 1128, 1317.
  • Christen, J.A. & Nakamura, M. (2000). On the analysis of accumulation curves. Biometrics, 56, 748754.
  • Clemen, R.T. & Winkler, R.L. (2007). Aggregating probability distributions. In: Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications (eds Edwards, W., Miles, R.F. & Von Winterfeldt, D.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 154176.
  • Cressie, N., Calder, C.A., Clark, J.S., Ver Hoef, J.M. & Wikle, C.K. (2009). Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling. Ecol. Appl., 19, 553570.
  • Crome, F.H.J., Thomas, M.R. & Moore, L.A. (1996). A novel Bayesian approach to assessing impacts of rain forest logging. Ecol. Appl., 6, 11041123.
  • Delbecq, A.L., Van de Ven, A.H. & Gustafson, D.H. (1975). Group Techniques for Program Planning: A Guide to Nominal Group and Delphi Processes. Scoot, Foresman and Company, Glenview, IL.
  • Denham, R. & Mengersen, K. (2007). Geographically assisted elicitation of expert opinion for regression models. Bayesian Anal., 2, 99136.
  • Dennis, B. (1996). Discussion: should ecologists become Bayesians? Ecol. Appl., 6, 10951103.
  • Ellison, A.M. (2004). Bayesian inference in ecology. Ecol. Lett., 7, 509520.
  • Ferson, S. & Ginzburg, L.R. (1996). Different methods are needed to propagate ignorance and variability. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 54, 133144.
  • Garthwaite, P.H. & Dickey, J.M. (1988). Quantifying expert opinion in linear regression problems. J. R. Stat. Soc. B Methodol., 50, 462474.
  • Garthwaite, P.H., Kadane, J.B. & O’Hagan, A. (2005). Statistical methods for eliciting probability distributions. J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 100, 680700.
  • Gelman, A., Carlin, J.B., Stern, H.S. & Rubin, D.B. (2003). Bayesian Data Analysis. Chapman and Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, Florida, USA.
  • Genest, C. & Zidek, J.V. (1986). Combining probability distributions: a critique and an annotated bibliography. Stat. Sci., 1, 114148.
  • Gigerenzer, G. (1996). The psychology of good judgment: frequency formats and simple algorithms. Med. Decis. Making, 16, 273280.
  • Gigerenzer, G. (2002). Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You. Simon and Schuster, New York.
  • Gigerenzer, G. (2007). Gut feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious. Viking, New York.
  • Gigerenzer, G. & Hoffrage, U. (1995). How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: frequency formats. Psychol. Rev., 102, 684704.
  • Gilks, W., Richardson, S. & Spiegelhalter, D. (1996). Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice. Chapman and Hall, London.
  • Greenlaw, C. & Brown-Welty, S. (2009). A comparison of web-based and paper-based survey methods. Eval. Rev., 33, 464480.
  • Griffiths, S.P., Kuhnert, P.M., Venables, W.N. & Blaber, S.J.M. (2007). Estimating abundance of pelagic fishes using gillnet catch data in data-limited fisheries: a Bayesian approach. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 64, 10191033.
  • Hayes, K.R., Regan, H.M. & Burgman, M.A. (2007). Introduction to the concepts and methods of uncertainty analysis. In: Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Organisms, Volume 3: Methodologies for Transgenic Fish (eds Kapuschinski, A.R., Hayes, K.R., Li, S. & Dana, G.). CABI Publishing, Oxfordshire, pp. 188208.
  • Ihaka, R. & Gentleman, R. (1996). R: A language for data analysis and graphics. J. Comput. Graph. Stat., 5, 299314.
  • James, A., Choy, S.L. & Mengersen, K. (2010). Elicitator: an expert elicitation tool for regression in ecology. Environ. Model. softw., 25, 129145.
  • Kangas, J. & Leskinen, P. (2005). Modelling ecological expertise for forest planning calculations – rationale, examples and pitfalls. J. Environ. Manage., 76, 125133.
  • Kuhnert, P.M., Martin, T.G., Mengersen, K. & Possingham, H.P. (2005). Assessing the impacts of grazing levels on bird density in woodland habitat: a Bayesian approach using expert opinion. Environmetrics, 16, 717747.
  • Kynn, M. (2004). Eliciting expert knowledge for Bayesian logistic regression in species habitat modelling. Department of Statistics, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane.
  • Kynn, M. (2008). The ‘heuristics and biases’ bias in expert elicitation. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. A Stat. Soc., 171, 239264.
  • Lele, S.H. & Allen, K.L. (2006). On using expert opinion in ecological analyses: a frequentist approach. Environmetrics, 17, 683704.
  • Link, W.A. & Barker, R.J. (2010). Bayesian Inference with Ecological Applications. Academic Press, London.
  • Low-Choy, S., O’Leary, R. & Mengersen, K. (2009). Elicitation by design in ecology: using expert opinion to inform priors for Bayesian statistical models. Ecology, 90, 265277.
  • Mac Nally, R. (2007). Consensus weightings of evidence for inferring breeding success in broad-scale bird studies. Austral Ecol., 32, 479484.
  • MacMillan, D.C. & Marshall, K. (2006). The Delphi process – an expert-based approach to ecological modelling in data-poor environments. Anim. Conserv., 9, 1119.
  • Mangel, M., Talbot, L.M., Meffe, G.K., Agardy, M.T., Alverson, D. & Barlow, J. (2001). Principles for the conservation of wild living resources. Environ. Dev. Econ., 2, 39110.
  • Martin, J., Nicols, J.D., Runge, M.C., McIntyre, C., Lubow, B.L., McCluskie, M.C. & Schmutz, J.A. (in press). An adaptive management framework for optimal control of recreational activities in Denali national park. Conserv. Biol..
  • Martin, T.G., Kuhnert, P.M., Mengersen, K. & Possingham, H.P. (2005). The power of expert opinion in ecological models using Bayesian methods: Impact of grazing on birds. Ecol. Appl., 15, 266280.
  • McCarthy, M.A. (2007). Bayesian Methods for Ecology. Cambridge University Press, New York.
  • McCarthy, M.A. & Masters, P. (2005). Profiting from prior information in Bayesian analyses of ecological data. J. Appl. Ecol., 42, 10121019.
  • O’Hagan, A. (1998). Eliciting expert beliefs in substantial practical applications. Statistician, 47, 2135.
  • O’Hagan, A., Buck, C.E., Daneshkhah, A., Eiser, J.R., Garthwaite, P.H., Jenkinson, D.J., Oakley, J.E. & Rakow, T. (2006). Uncertain judgements: Eliciting Expert Probabilities. Wiley, Chichester, UK.
  • O’Hagan, A. & Oakley, J.E. (2004). Probability is perfect, but we can’t elicit it perfectly. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 85, 239248.
  • O’Leary, R.A., Low Choy, S., Murray, J.V., Kynn, M., Denham, R., Martin, T.G. & Mengersen, K. (2008). Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata. Envirometrics (in press). Available at: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/fulltext/120748019/PDFSTART.
  • O’Neill, S., Osborn, T., Hulme, M., Lorenzoni, I. & Watkinson, A. (2008). Using expert knowledge to assess uncertainties in future polar bear populations under climate change. J. Appl. Ecol., 45, 16491659.
  • Olson, R.J. & Watters, G.M. (2003). A model of the pelagic ecosystem in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Inter Am. Trop. Tuna Comm. Bull., 22, 133219.
  • Regan, H.M., Colyvan, M. & Burgman, M.A. (2002). A taxonomy and treatment of uncertainty for ecology and conservation biology. Ecol. Appl., 12, 618628.
  • Robert, C. (2000). The Bayesian Choice, 2nd edn. Springer, New York.
  • Scholz, R.W. & Hansmann, R. (2007). Combining experts’ risk judgments on technology performance of phytoremediation: self-confidence ratings, averaging procedures, and formative consensus building. Risk Anal., 27, 225240.
  • Serventy, D.L. (1956). Additional observations on the biology of the northern bluefin tuna, Kishinoella tonggol (Bleeker) in Australia. Aust. J. Mar. Freshw. Res., 7, 4463.
  • Speirs-Bridge, A., Fidler, F., McBride, M., Flander, L., Cumming, G. & Burgman, M.A. (2010). Reducing overconfidence in the interval judgments of experts. Risk Anal., 30, 512523.
  • Steffey, D. (1992). Hierarchical Bayesian modeling with elicited prior information. Commun. Stat. Theory Methods, 21, 799821.
  • Stobutzki, I.C., Miller, M.J., Heales, D.S. & Brewer, D.T. (2002). Sustainability of elasmobranchs caught as bycatch in a tropical prawn (shrimp) trawl fishery. Fish. Bull., 100, 800821.
  • Sturtz, S., Ligges, U. & Gelmen, A. (2005). R2WinBUGS: a package for running WinBUGS from R. J. Stat. Softw., 12, 116.
  • Winkler, R.L. (1996). Uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 54, 127132.
  • Yamada, K., Elith, J., McCarthy, M. & Zerger, A. (2003). Eliciting and integrating expert knowledge for wildlife habitat modelling. Ecol. Model., 165, 251264.
  • Yammarino, F.J., Skinner, S.J. & Childers, T.L. (1991). Understanding mail survey response behavior a meta-analysis. Public Opin. Q., 55, 613639.