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Signatures of range expansion and erosion in eastern North American trees

Authors

  • Helen T. Murphy,

    Corresponding author
    1. CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences and Climate Adaptation Flagship, PO Box 780, Atherton, Qld 4883, Australia
      Correspondence: E-mail: helen.murphy@csiro.au
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  • Jeremy VanDerWal,

    1. Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia
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  • Jon Lovett-Doust

    1. Nipissing University, School of Graduate Studies, 100 College Dr, Box 5002, North Bay, Ontario P1B8L7, Canada
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Correspondence: E-mail: helen.murphy@csiro.au

Abstract

Ecology Letters (2010)

Abstract

Abundance and occupancy of populations at high- and low-latitude geographic range edges will be critically important in determining a species’ response to climate change. Low abundance and occupancy at expanding (high latitude) edges of the range may limit a species capacity to migrate, and at trailing (low latitude) edges, may result in range erosion and regional extinction. We examined abundance–occupancy distributions across the geographic ranges of 102 eastern North American trees and looked for signatures reflecting capacity to respond to climate change. We found that 62% of species display a signature consistent with higher climatic suitability in the northern latitudes of their range. However, our results suggest that the most common response is likely to involve range erosion in the south and limited range expansion in the north, possibly leading to an overall reduction in range size for many species. In particular, species with smaller ranges centred at lower latitudes may not have the capacity to successfully track the current rate of climate change.

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