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Climate change threatens European conservation areas

  1. Miguel B. Araújo1,2,†,*,
  2. Diogo Alagador1,3,†,
  3. Mar Cabeza1,4,
  4. David Nogués-Bravo1,5,
  5. Wilfried Thuiller6

Article first published online: 30 MAR 2011

DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01610.x

Issue

Ecology Letters

Ecology Letters

Volume 14, Issue 5, pages 484–492, May 2011

Additional Information

How to Cite

Araújo, M. B., Alagador, D., Cabeza, M., Nogués-Bravo, D. and Thuiller, W. (2011), Climate change threatens European conservation areas. Ecology Letters, 14: 484–492. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01610.x

Author Information

  1. 1

    Department of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, 28006, Madrid, Spain

  2. 2

    Rui Nabeiro Biodiversity Chair, CIBIO, University of Évora, Largo dos Colegiais, 7000 Évora, Portugal

  3. 3

    Forest Research Centre, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Technical University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal

  4. 4

    Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Viikinkaari 1, 00014, Finland

  5. 5

    Centre for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, 2100, Denmark

  6. 6

    Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine, UMR-CNRS 5553, Université J. Fourier, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France

  1. †

    These authors contributed equally to this work.

*E-mail: maraujo@mncn.csic.es

  1. †

    These authors contributed equally to this work.

  2. Re-use of this article is permitted in accordance with the Terms and Conditions set out at http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/onlineopen#OnlineOpen_Terms

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 11 APR 2011
  2. Article first published online: 30 MAR 2011
  3. Editor, Lauren Buckley Manuscript received 2 November 2010 First decision made 10 December 2010 Second decision made 9 February 2011 Manuscript accepted 18 February 2011

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Keywords:

  • Bioclimatic envelope models;
  • climate change;
  • conservation planning;
  • gap analysis;
  • Natura 2000 networks;
  • protected areas

Ecology Letters (2011) 14: 484–492

Abstract

Europe has the world’s most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change. We found that by 2080, 58 ± 2.6% of the species would lose suitable climate in protected areas, whereas losses affected 63 ± 2.1% of the species of European concern occurring in Natura 2000 areas. Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (P < 0.001), but Natura 2000 areas retain climate suitability for species no better and sometimes less effectively than unprotected areas. The risk is high that ongoing efforts to conserve Europe’s biodiversity are jeopardized by climate change. New policies are required to avert this risk.

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