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Appendix S1 Bioclimate model performance and species taxonomy.

Appendix S2 Changes in range size under different climate scenarios and range shift parameter values.

Appendix S3 Range shift distances under different climate scenarios and range shift parameter values.

Figure S1 Mean ± standard error of the deviance explained by the 100 GAMs built for each species, using different sample-region radii.

Figure S2 Predicted potential and actual range sizes for all species, each decade from 1991 to 2099, assuming different parameter values for dispersal abilities and persistence.

Figure S3 Predicted potential and actual latitudinal shifts of the northern range margins of all species, relative to their 1961–1990 position, each decade from 1991 to 2099.

Figure S4a Mean predicted extent of occurrence (EOO) between 2071 and 2099 for each species as predicted by GAMs.

Figure S4b Mean predicted extent of occurrence (EOO) between 2071 and 2099 for each species using Mahalanobis, Maxent and Bioclim predictions.

Table S1a Information on the taxonomy of modelled species and performance of bioclimate models.

Table S1b Information on the performance of alternative bioclimate models.

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