Ecology Letters (2012) 15: 444–452
The influence of habitat fragmentation on mating patterns and progeny fitness in trees is critical for understanding the long-term impact of contemporary landscape change on the sustainability of biodiversity. We examined the relationship between mating patterns, using microsatellites, and fitness of progeny, in a common garden trial, for the insect-pollinated big-leaf mahogany, Swietenia macrophylla King, sourced from forests and isolated trees in 16 populations across Central America. As expected, isolated trees had disrupted mating patterns and reduced fitness. However, for dry provenances, fitness was negatively related to correlated paternity, while for mesic provenances, fitness was correlated positively with outcrossing rate and negatively with correlated paternity. Poorer performance of mesic provenances is likely because of reduced effective pollen donor density due to poorer environmental suitability and greater disturbance history. Our results demonstrate a differential shift in reproductive assurance and inbreeding costs in mahogany, driven by exploitation history and contemporary landscape context.