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LETTER
A single climate driver has direct and indirect effects on insect population dynamics
Article first published online: 14 MAR 2012
DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01766.x
© 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS
Additional Information
How to Cite
Boggs, C. L. and Inouye, D. W. (2012), A single climate driver has direct and indirect effects on insect population dynamics. Ecology Letters, 15: 502–508. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01766.x
Publication History
- Issue published online: 3 APR 2012
- Article first published online: 14 MAR 2012
- Editor, Jane Hill Manuscript received 9 November 2011 First decision made 7 December 2011 Manuscript accepted 23 February 2012
Keywords:
- Climate;
- density-dependent indirect effects;
- Erigeron;
- flower phenology;
- frost;
- Lepidoptera;
- pollinator;
- snow melt timing;
- Speyeria;
- weather
Ecology Letters (2012) 15: 502–508
Abstract
Weather drives population dynamics directly, through effects on vital rates, or indirectly, through effects on the population’s competitors, predators or prey and thence on vital rates. Indirect effects may include non-additive interactions with density dependence. Detection of climate drivers is critical to predicting climate change effects, but identification of potential drivers may depend on knowing the underlying mechanisms. For the butterfly Speyeria mormonia, one climate driver, snow melt date, has multiple effects on population growth. Snow melt date in year t has density-dependent indirect effects. Through frost effects, early snow melt decreases floral resources, thence per-capita nectar availability, which determines fecundity in the lab. Snow melt date in year t + 1 has density-independent direct effects. These effects explain 84% of the variation in population growth rate. One climate parameter thus has multiple effects on the dynamics of a species with non-overlapping generations, with one effect not detectable without understanding the underlying mechanism.