Anahí Espíndola and Loïc Pellissier equally contributed to this study and should be considered as co-first authors.
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LETTER
Predicting present and future intra-specific genetic structure through niche hindcasting across 24 millennia
Article first published online: 20 APR 2012
DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01779.x
© 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS
Additional Information
How to Cite
Espíndola, A., Pellissier, L., Maiorano, L., Hordijk, W., Guisan, A. and Alvarez, N. (2012), Predicting present and future intra-specific genetic structure through niche hindcasting across 24 millennia. Ecology Letters, 15: 649–657. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01779.x
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Anahí Espíndola and Loïc Pellissier equally contributed to this study and should be considered as co-first authors.
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Nadir Alvarez supervised Anahí Espíndola and Antoine Guisan supervised Loïc Pellissier.
Publication History
- Issue published online: 8 JUN 2012
- Article first published online: 20 APR 2012
- Editor, Janneke Hille Ris Lambers Manuscript received 7 December 2011 First decision made 9 January 2012 Second decision made 5 March 2012 Manuscript accepted 15 March 2012
Keywords:
- AFLP;
- climate change;
- forecasting;
- hindcasting;
- past climate;
- phylogeography;
- post-glacial contraction;
- recolonisation;
- species distribution models;
- Trollius europaeus
Ecology Letters (2012) 15: 649–657
Abstract
Paleoclimatic reconstructions coupled with species distribution models and identification of extant spatial genetic structure have the potential to provide insights into the demographic events that shape the distribution of intra-specific genetic variation across time. Using the globeflower Trollius europaeus as a case-study, we combined (1) Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms, (2) suites of 1000-years stepwise hindcasted species distributions and (3) a model of diffusion through time over the last 24,000 years, to trace the spatial dynamics that most likely fits the species’ current genetic structure. We show that the globeflower comprises four gene pools in Europe which, from the dry period preceding the Last Glacial Maximum, dispersed while tracking the conditions fitting its climatic niche. Among these four gene pools, two are predicted to experience drastic range retraction in the near future. Our interdisciplinary approach, applicable to virtually any taxon, is an advance in inferring how climate change impacts species’ genetic structures.