Mortality predictions for colon and anorectal cancer for Ireland, 2003–17

  1. P. O'Lorcain,
  2. S. Deady,
  3. H. Comber

Article first published online: 8 MAY 2006

DOI: 10.1111/j.1463-1318.2006.00951.x

Issue

Colorectal Disease

Colorectal Disease

Volume 8, Issue 5, pages 393–401, June 2006

Additional Information

How to Cite

O'Lorcain, P., Deady, S. and Comber, H. (2006), Mortality predictions for colon and anorectal cancer for Ireland, 2003–17. Colorectal Disease, 8: 393–401. doi: 10.1111/j.1463-1318.2006.00951.x

Author Information

  1. National Cancer Registry, Cork, Ireland

*P. O'Lorcain, National Cancer Registry, Elm Court, Boreenmanna Road, Cork, Ireland. E-mail: h.comber@ncri.ie; piarasol@eircom.net

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 8 MAY 2006
  2. Article first published online: 8 MAY 2006
  3. Received 21 April 2005; accepted 26 September 2005

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Keywords:

  • Log and log-linear Poisson regression;
  • colorectal;
  • cancer;
  • mortality;
  • predictions;
  • Ireland

Abstract

Objective  Colorectal cancer mortality predictions for Ireland are presented for all ages and for the age group 0–64 years.

Methods  Log and log-linear Poisson regression modelling was fitted to colorectal cancer mortality data for each year between 1950 and 2002 to predict average European age standardized mortality rates (EASMRs) per 100 000 person years (100 000 PY−1) and average numbers of deaths.

Results  EASMRs for colon cancer are predicted to fall to 17.3 100 000 PY−1 (95%PI 14.4, 20.2) in men and to 8.4 100 000 PY−1 (95%PI 6.9, 10.2) in women by 2013–17. EASMRs for anorectal cancer are also predicted to fall to 8.0 100 000 PY−1 (95%PI 6.6, 9.5) in men and to 3.0 100 000 PY−1 (95%PI 2.3, 3.8) in women by this time. Truncated EASMRs for colon cancer for those aged between 0 and 64 years are predicted over the next 15 years to fall from their current levels to 4.4 100 000 PY−1 (95%PI 3.0, 5.8) in men and to 2.3 100 000 PY−1 (95%PI 1.5, 3.2) in women. For anorectal cancer, truncated EASMRs for those aged between 0 and 64 years are also predicted over the next 15 years to fall from their current levels to 2.9 100 000 PY−1 (95%PI 2.0, 3.8) in men and to 0.9 100 000 PY−1 (95%PI 0.4, 1.3) in women.

Conclusions  Ireland currently has one of the highest colorectal mortality rates in the developed world but recent downward trends, the advent of new screening tests and well targeted public health promotion programmes may lead to further reductions.

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