Aim To benchmark by year the likelihood that an individual with a diabetic neuropathic foot ulcer will heal over more than a 10-year period.
Patients and methods A cohort study within a multicentre wound care network of individuals with a diabetic neuropathic foot ulcer who were treated by a standard wound care algorithm. The main outcome was a healed wound by the 20th week of care stratified by calendar year.
Results We evaluated 27 193 individuals with a neuropathic foot ulcer. Between 1988 and 1990 approximately 66% of patients did not heal. By 1999 this percentage had decreased to 49%. The change in the rate of failure to heal is very closely associated with an increase over time in the proportion of patients seen with wounds identified as prognostically favourable using a previously published prognostic model (i.e. individuals with wounds ≤ 2 cm2, wounds ≤ 2 months old, and wounds of grade ≤ 2). Nevertheless, even among those most likely to heal, the likelihood of failing to heal went from 62% prior to 1991 to 32% in 2000.
Conclusions We have shown that individuals with a diabetic neuropathic foot ulcer seeking care are more likely to heal today than 10 years ago. The primary reason for this improvement is that individuals are seeking care when their wounds are most easily treated and these are now more likely to heal.