Seasonal variation of diagnosis of Type 1 diabetes mellitus in children worldwide


Elena Moltchanova, National Institute for Health and Welfare, Dept of Chronic Disease Prevention, Diabetes Prevention Unit, Mannerheimintie 166, FIN 00300, Helsinki, Finland. E-mail:


Aims  To determine if there is a worldwide seasonal pattern in the clinical onset of Type 1 diabetes.

Methods  Analysis of the seasonality in diagnosis of Type 1 diabetes was based on the incidence data in 0- to 14-year-old children collected by the World Health Organization Diabetes Mondiale (WHO DiaMond) Project over the period 1990–1999. One hundred and five centres from 53 countries worldwide provided enough data for the seasonality analysis. The incidence seasonality patterns were also determined for age- and sex-specific groups.

Results  Forty-two out of 105 centres exhibited significant seasonality in the incidence of Type 1 diabetes (P < 0.05). The existence of significant seasonal patterns correlated with higher level of incidence and of the average yearly counts. The correlation disappeared after adjustment for latitude. Twenty-eight of those centres had peaks in October to January and 33 had troughs in June to August. Two out of the four centres with significant seasonality in the southern hemisphere demonstrated a different pattern with a peak in July to September and a trough in January to March.

Conclusions  The seasonality of the incidence of Type 1 diabetes mellitus in children under 15 years of age is a real phenomenon, as was reported previously and as is now demonstrated by this large standardized study. The seasonality pattern appears to be dependent on the geographical position, at least as far as the northern/southern hemisphere dichotomy is concerned. However, more data are needed on the populations living below the 30th parallel north in order to complete the picture.