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DOUBLING U.S. EXPORTS UNDER THE PRESIDENT'S NATIONAL EXPORT INITIATIVE: IMPLICATIONS OF SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION

Authors

  • PETER B. DIXON,

    1. Dixon: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University, Clayton, Vic 3800, Australia. Phone 61 3 9905 5464, Fax 61 3 9905 2426, E-mail Peter.dixon@monash.edu
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  • MAUREEN T. RIMMER

    1. Rimmer: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University, Clayton, Vic 3800, Australia. Phone 61 3 9905 5464, Fax 61 3 9905 2426, E-mail Maureen.rimmer@monash.edu
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    • We thank the U.S. International Trade Commission and the U.S. Department of Commerce for supporting the creation of the USAGE model and for encouraging our research on the National Export Initiative. Neither of these organizations is responsible for the contents of the paper.


Abstract

President Obama's National Export Initiative (NEI) is targeted at doubling U.S. exports between 2010 and 2015. We apply USAGE to quantify what the NEI would need to do to foreign import-demand curves and domestic export-supply curves to achieve this target. USAGE is a dynamic economy-wide model of the U.S. incorporating recession-relevant factor market specifications including excess capacity and wage/labor-demand elasticities that vary with the level of employment. In our central simulation, export-promotion policies compatible with the President's target reduce the cost of the current recession from about 70 million 1-year jobs for the period 2008–2020 to 45 million jobs. (JEL E17, C68, E62, E65, F16)

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