ON THE SEARCH FOR TALENT IN ACADEMIC LABOR MARKETS: EASILY OBSERVABLE LATER-GRADUATE STUDY OUTCOMES AS PREDICTORS OF EARLY-CAREER PUBLISHING, PLACEMENT, AND TENURE

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Abstract

Three easily observed later-graduate study outcomes, working with a prominent advisor, publishing while in graduate school, and coauthoring with the advisor are demonstrated to be significant determinants of early-career publishing success for a sample of nearly 3,000 Ph.D. recipients from more than 100 domestic programs between 1990 and 1993. Out-of-sample predictions for 681 Ph.D. recipients from the class of 1994 indicate that these easily observed later-graduate study signals dramatically improve our ability to forecast which students become prolific and which students fail to publish more than one article. Analyzing initial domestic tenure-track economics placements indicates that hiring departments placed far more emphasis on Ph.D. program pedigree, leading to an initial tenure rate of less than 50% but eventually nearly three-fourths currently hold tenured positions in the United States. (JEL J24, J44)

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