Health Services Research Centre, School of Government, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington 6140, New Zealand. e-mail: Megan.Pledger@vuw.ac.nz
MODELLING THE 2004 SUPER 12 RUGBY UNION COMPETITION
Article first published online: 25 MAY 2011
© 2011 Australian Statistical Publishing Association Inc.
Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics
Volume 53, Issue 1, pages 109–121, March 2011
How to Cite
Pledger, M. J. and Morton, R. H. (2011), MODELLING THE 2004 SUPER 12 RUGBY UNION COMPETITION. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 53: 109–121. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-842X.2011.00599.x
- Issue published online: 25 MAY 2011
- Article first published online: 25 MAY 2011
- Bayesian models;
- home advantage;
- rugby union
This paper uses Bayesian methods via WinBUGS to model round robin play in the 2004 Super 12 Rugby Union competition in order to explore home advantage and how that impacts the outcome of the competition. The scores from the games are decomposed into counts of converted and unconverted tries, penalties and drop goals and are modelled as Poisson random variables with a log link. The dependent variables are the offensive and defensive capabilities of the teams along with terms for home advantage. The model is used to ascertain the effects of home advantage on the standings of the teams in the competition and, from that, how fairness in the competition could be improved.