Trends versus cycles in global wine export shares

Authors

  • Walter C. Labys,

    1. Resource Economics, Natural Resource Economics Program, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV, USA, 26506-6108
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  • Bruce C. Cohen

    1. Economist (ret), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, United Nations – Palais des Nations, Geneva, Switzerland
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    • Walter C. Labys (e-mail: wlabys@wvu.edu) is a Professor of Resource Economics, Natural Resource Economics Program, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV, USA, 26506-6108. Bruce C. Cohen, Economist (ret), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, United Nations – Palais des Nations, Geneva, Switzerland.

      Note: Earlier data for this study appear from Anderson and Norman (2003) and its predecessor, Berger et al. (1998). Glyn Wittwer is to be thanked for providing the more recent data as well as the disaggregated product data from Wittwer and Rothfield (2006).


Abstract

The global wine market has witnessed major changes in recent years. Some of these changes are structural in nature or trend-following, whereas others are cyclical. Recently, new market entrants have increased their exports not only to traditional European markets but to other importing regions as well, whereas Old World producers have experienced declining market shares. However, the evidence examined here suggests that market share data also contain strong cyclical components. Mixed results also occur when the wine export data are disaggregated into products. This paper employs econometric methods to analyse the recent major shifts in world wine market shares and explains whether these are more of a secular trend-setting nature or of a temporary cyclical nature.

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