Glyn Wittwer (email: email@example.com) is a Senior Research Fellow, Centre of Policy Studies, 11th floor Menzies Building, Clayton campus, Monash University, VIC., Australia. Marnie Griffith is a Research Fellow, Centre of Policy Studies, 11th floor Menzies Building, Clayton campus, Monash University, VIC 3800, Australia.
Modelling drought and recovery in the southern Murray-Darling basin*
Article first published online: 13 JUN 2011
© 2011 The Authors. AJARE © 2011 Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc. and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd
Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
Volume 55, Issue 3, pages 342–359, July 2011
How to Cite
Wittwer, G. and Griffith, M. (2011), Modelling drought and recovery in the southern Murray-Darling basin. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 55: 342–359. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8489.2011.00541.x
The authors thank the Australian Research Council for funding under project DP0986783.
- Issue published online: 3 JUL 2011
- Article first published online: 13 JUN 2011
- CGE modelling;
The prolonged drought from 2006–07 to 2008–09 in south-eastern Australia presented severe difficulties for dry-land and irrigation farmers in the southern Murray-Darling basin. A dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium model (TERM-H2O) is used to estimate the economy-wide small region impacts during and after drought. Drought reduces real GDP in some small regions by up to 20 per cent. Irrigation water trading and farm factor movements alleviate losses. The drought results in an estimated 6000 jobs being lost across the southern basin. Depressed farm investment during drought results in farm capital not returning to baseline levels after drought. Consequently, job numbers in 2017–18 remain 1500 below forecast in the southern basin.