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Keywords:

  • broad money;
  • cointegrated vector autoregressive model;
  • I(1);
  • I(2);
  • maximum likelihood;
  • monetary base;
  • money multiplier;
  • C32;
  • E51

ABSTRACT

The objective of this paper is to consider methodology for modelling time series data of monetary aggregates such as monetary base and broad money. A brief review is made with regard to the likelihood-based cointegration analysis of I(2) (integrated of order 2) data and I(2)-to-I(1) transformations. The paper then investigates procedures for econometric modelling of monetary aggregates, which are in general deemed to be I(2) variables analogous to price indices. It is shown that I(2)-to-I(1) transformations centering on a money multiplier play an important role in the modelling procedures. Finally, the study presents an empirical illustration of the proposed methodology using monetary aggregate data from Japan.