SEARCH

SEARCH BY CITATION

Keywords:

  • beliefs;
  • collective bias;
  • expectations;
  • forecast news;
  • heterogeneity;
  • imperfect knowledge;
  • monetary policy;
  • uncertainty;
  • C52;
  • E31;
  • E52

ABSTRACT

This paper analyses the stability of long-term inflation expectations and uncertainty, based on their sensitivity to innovations to observed inflation, short- and medium-term forecast news. News is defined in a subjective sense and derived from revisions to shorter-term fixed-target forecasts. The assessment tests for presence of non-linear effects, including regime changes during disinflation in the USA in the 1990s and the recent financial crisis. Stability is also investigated in terms of level evolution, based on a structural non-linear and non-Gaussian learning model to uncover the presence of a common trend underlying the long-term dynamics of inflation, individual expectations, and uncertainty.