The Sleeping Giant Awakes: Projecting Global Implications of China's Energy Consumption


Zhang: World Bank, 1818 H St NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA. Tel: 202-473-1758; Fax: 202-614-1034; E-mail: Konan: Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 542 Saunders Hall, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA. Tel: 808-956-6310; Fax: 808-956-4347; E-mail:


China's rapid economic growth has generated a surge in energy demand that is reallocating global fuel balances. We employ a global energy computable general-equilibrium model to analyze alternative scenarios for economic growth, Chinese currency appreciation, and oil price shocks, with a special focus on China energy markets. Imports from the Middle East, Central Asia, Russia, and Sub-Saharan Africa are found to comprise a growing share of China's energy. Imports to China grow from 12% of world energy imports in 2010 to 17% by 2050 when over 80% of China's oil demand will be imported.