Thanks to Will Martin for leadership in the overall effort and valuable comments. Seminar participants in Dar Es Salaam and the World Bank also provided useful comments. All errors and omissions are the responsibility of the authors.
Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania
Version of Record online: 13 JUL 2012
© 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Review of Development Economics
Special Issue: Climate Change and Economic Development. Guest Editors: Channing Arndt, Paul Chinowsky, Ken Strzepek, Finn Tarp, and James Thurlow
Volume 16, Issue 3, pages 378–393, August 2012
How to Cite
Arndt, C., Farmer, W., Strzepek, K. and Thurlow, J. (2012), Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania. Review of Development Economics, 16: 378–393. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9361.2012.00669.x
- Issue online: 13 JUL 2012
- Version of Record online: 13 JUL 2012
Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Here, we estimate the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used in calibrated crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts in Tanzania. These results are in turn imposed on a highly disaggregated, recursive dynamic economy-wide model of Tanzania. We find that, relative to a no-climate-change baseline and considering domestic agricultural production as the channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favorable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. Noteworthy differences in impacts across households are also present both by region and by income category.