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Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania

Authors

  • Channing Arndt,

    1. Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, København K, Denmark
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  • William Farmer,

    1. Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
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  • Kenneth Strzepek,

    1. Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
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  • James Thurlow

    Corresponding author
    1. UNU-WIDER, Helsinki, Finland
    • Arndt: Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 5, Building 26, 1353 København K, Denmark. Tel: +45 3-532-3010, Fax: +45 3-532-3000, E-mail: channing.arndt@econ.ku.dk. Farmer and Strzepek: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, E19-411, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307, USA. Thurlow: UNU-WIDER, Katajanokanlaituri 6 B, FI-00160 Helsinki, Finland.

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  • Thanks to Will Martin for leadership in the overall effort and valuable comments. Seminar participants in Dar Es Salaam and the World Bank also provided useful comments. All errors and omissions are the responsibility of the authors.

Abstract

Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Here, we estimate the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used in calibrated crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts in Tanzania. These results are in turn imposed on a highly disaggregated, recursive dynamic economy-wide model of Tanzania. We find that, relative to a no-climate-change baseline and considering domestic agricultural production as the channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favorable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. Noteworthy differences in impacts across households are also present both by region and by income category.

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