Climate Change and Roads: A Dynamic Stressor–Response Model

Authors

  • Paul Chinowsky,

    1. Chinowsky: Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
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  • Channing Arndt

    Corresponding author
    1. Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, København K, Denmark
    • Chinowsky: Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, ECOT 441, UCB 428, Boulder, CO 80309-0428, USA. Tel: +1-303-492-6382; Fax: +1-303-492-7317; E-mail: chinowsk@colorado.edu. Arndt: Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 1353 København K Denmark. Tel: +45-3-532-3010; Fax: +45-3-532-3000; E-mail: channingarndt@gmail.com.

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Abstract

Decision-makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor–response methodology where engineering-based models are used as a basis to estimate the impact of individual climate stressors on road infrastructure in Mozambique. Through these models, stressor–response functions are introduced that quantify the cost impact of a specific stressor based on the intensity of the stressor and the type of infrastructure it is affecting. Utilizing four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through the adoption of a proactive, design standard evolution approach to climate change.

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