Climate Change, Growth and Infrastructure Investment: The Case of Mozambique

Authors

  • Channing Arndt,

    1. Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, København K, Denmark
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  • Paul Chinowsky,

    1. University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
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  • Kenneth Strzepek,

    1. Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
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  • James Thurlow

    Corresponding author
    1. UNU-WIDER, Helsinki, Finland
    • Arndt: Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 5, Building 26, 1353 København K Denmark. Tel: +45-3-532-3010; Fax: +45-3-532-3000; E-mail: channingarndt@gmail.com. Chinowsky: Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, ECOT 441, UCB 428, Boulder, CO 80309-0428, USA. Strzepek: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, E19-411, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307, USA. Thurlow: UNU-WIDER, Katajanokanlaituri 6 B, FI-00160 Helsinki, Finland.

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Abstract

Climate change may damage road infrastructure, to the potential detriment of economic growth, particularly in developing countries. To quantitatively assess climate change's consequences, we incorporate a climate–infrastructure model based on stressor–response relationships directly into a recursive dynamic economy-wide model to estimate and compare road damages with other climate change impact channels. We apply this framework to Mozambique and simulate four future climate scenarios. Our results indicate that climate change through 2050 is likely to place a drag on economic growth and development prospects. The economic implications of climate change appear to become more pronounced from about 2030. Nevertheless, the implications are not so strong as to drastically diminish development prospects. Our findings suggest that impact assessments should include damages to long-run assets, such as road infrastructure, imposed by climate change.

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