Near Optimal Prediction from Relevant Components


Inge S. Helland, Department of Mathematics, University of Oslo, Box 1053 Blindern, NO-0316 Oslo, Norway.


Abstract.  The random x regression model is approached through the group of rotations of the eigenvectors for the x-covariance matrix together with scale transformations for each of the corresponding regression coefficients. The partial least squares model can be constructed from the orbits of this group. A generalization of Pitman's Theorem says that the best equivariant estimator under a group is given by the Bayes estimator with the group's invariant measure as the prior. A straightforward application of this theorem turns out to be impossible since the relevant invariant prior leads to a non-defined posterior. Nevertheless we can devise an approximate scale group with a proper invariant prior leading to a well-defined posterior distribution with a finite mean. This Bayes estimator is explored using Markov chain Monte Carlo technique. The estimator seems to require heavy computations, but can be argued to have several nice properties. It is also a valid estimator when p>n.