We thank John Carlin for several long discussions; Jennifer Hill, Donald Rubin, Ross Stolzenberg, and an anonymous reviewer for helpful comments; and the National Science Foundation for support through grants SBR-9708424, SES-9987748, SES-0318115, and Young Investigator Award DMS-9796129. Direct correspondence to Andrew Gelman at firstname.lastname@example.org, www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman.
AVERAGE PREDICTIVE COMPARISONS FOR MODELS WITH NONLINEARITY, INTERACTIONS, AND VARIANCE COMPONENTS
Version of Record online: 18 MAY 2007
Volume 37, Issue 1, pages 23–51, December 2007
How to Cite
Gelman, A. and Pardoe, I. (2007), AVERAGE PREDICTIVE COMPARISONS FOR MODELS WITH NONLINEARITY, INTERACTIONS, AND VARIANCE COMPONENTS. Sociological Methodology, 37: 23–51. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9531.2007.00181.x
- Issue online: 18 MAY 2007
- Version of Record online: 18 MAY 2007
- 2001. “A Case Study on the Choice, Interpretation, and Checking of Multilevel Models for Longitudinal Binary Outcomes. Biostatistics 2: 397–416. , , , and .
- 1981. “On Prediction and the Power Transformation Family. Biometrika 68: 609–15. , and .
- 1982. “Corrected Group Prognostic Curves and Summary Statistics. Journal of Chronic Diseases 35: 669–74. , , and .
- 1999. “Causal Effects in Nonexperimental Studies: Reevaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs. Journal of the American Statistical Association 94: 1053–62. , and .
- 1993. “Odds Versus Probabilities in Logit Equations: A Reply to Roncek. Social Forces 71: 1057–65.
- 1993. An Introduction to the Bootstrap. New York : Chapman and Hall. , and .
- 1998. “Annotated Bibliography: Relative Importance of Explanatory Variables. Oxford : Nuffield College . http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/sociology/alcd/relimp.pdf.
- 2005. “Analysis of Variance: Why It Is More Important Than Ever” (with discussion). Annals of Statistics 33: 1–53.
- 2007. “Scaling Regression Inputs by Dividing by Two Standard Deviations.” Technical report, Department of Statistics, Columbia University . .
- 2001. “Poststratification and Weighting Adjustments.” Pp. 289–302 in Survey Nonresponse, edited by R.Groves, D.Dillman, J.Eltinge, and R.Little. New York : Wiley. , and .
- 1993. “Why are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes Are So Predictable? British Journal of Political Science 23: 409–51. , and .
- 1998. “Not Asked and Not Answered: Multiple Imputation for Multiple Surveys” (with discussion). Journal of the American Statistical Association 93: 846–74. , , and .
- 1999. “Predictive Margins with Survey Data. Biometrics 55: 652–59. , and .
- 1977. Statistical Methods for Social Scientists. New York : Academic Press. , and .
- 1984. “The Analysis of Transformed Data” (with discussion). Journal of the American Statistical Association 79: 302–20. , and .
- 1996. “Comparing Effects in Dichotomous Logistic Regression: A Variety of Standardized Coefficients. Social Science Quarterly 77: 90–109.
- 2000. “Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation. American Journal of Political Science 44: 341–55. , , and .
- 1965. Survey Sampling. New York : Wiley .
- 1982. “Analysis of Covariance and Standardization as Instances of Prediction. Biometrics 38: 613–21. , and .
- 1981. “Covariance Adjustment of Rates Based on the Multiple Logistic Regression Model. Journal of Chronic Diseases 34: 415–26.
- 1987. Statistical Analysis with Missing Data. New York : Wiley . , and .
- 1987. “A Graphical Method for the Interpretation of Multinomial Logit Analysis. Sociological Methods and Research 15: 420–46.
- 1989. Generalized Linear Models, 2nd ed. New York : Chapman and Hall. , and
- 1923] 1991. “On the Application of Probability Theory to Agricultural Experiments. Essay on Principles. Section 9.” Translated and edited by D. M.Dabrowska, and T. P.Speed. Statistical Science 5: 463–80. [
- 2001. “A Bayesian Sampling Approach to Regression Model Checking. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 10: 617–27.
- 2004. “Model Assessment Plots for Multilevel Logistic Regression. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 46: 295–307. .
- 2002. “A Graphical Method for Assessing the Fit of a Logistic Regression Model. American Statistician 56: 263–72. , and .
- 2006. “Sentencing Convicted Felons in the United States: A Bayesian Analysis Using Multilevel Covariates” (with discussion). Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 136: 1433–72. , and .
- 1991. “Using Logit Coefficients to Obtain the Effects of Independent Variables in Changes in Probabilities. Social Forces 70: 509–18.
- 1974. “Estimating Causal Effects of Treatments in Randomized and Nonrandomized Studies. Journal of Educational Psychology 66: 688–701.
- ———. 1990. “Discussion On the Application of Probability Theory to Agricultural Experiments. Essay on Principles.” Section 9, by J.Neyman. Statistical Science 5: 472–80.
- 1992. Variance Components. New York : Wiley . , , and .
- 1999. “Treatment Effects in a Logistic Model Involving the Box-Cox Transformation. Journal of the American Statistical Association 94: 240–46. , and .
- 1994, 2004). “BUGS: Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling.” MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge , England . http://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/bugs , , , , and . (
- 1979. “The Measurement and Decomposition of Causal Effects in Nonlinear and Nonadditive Models.” Pp. 459–88 in Sociological Methodology, Vol. 11. Cambridge , MA : Blackwell Publishing.
- 2004. “Regression Analysis.” Pp. 165–208 in Handbook of Data Analysis, edited by M.Hardy and A.Bryman. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. .