4 | Developed understanding of reasonable variation with an explicit acknowledgement of appropriate proportion and variation | ‘5, 4, 6, 3, 4, 6 – 4, 5, 6 are around the halfway mark. You might get 3 less than what you expect.’ (Five as centre, reasonable spread) |

‘5, 4, 6, 5, 7, 6 – most around 5 because there's 50 reds in there.’ (Five as centre, reasonable spread) |

3 | An understanding of reasonable variation with an implicit acknowledgement of appropriate proportion (more red) | ‘4, 6, 3, 5, 2, 7 – more reds than any other colour, because there is more reds than yellow or green.’ (Five as centre, reasonable spread) |

‘5, 4, 6, 3, 4, 4 – around an average, hard to explain. Sometimes you get different things, just chance.’ (Five as centre, reasonable spread) |

2 | Demonstration of reasonable variation about the centre without appropriate explanation OR | ‘4, 6, 5, 8, 2, 3 – all different numbers and it varies, lots of reds.’ (Five as centre, reasonable spread) |

An implicit acknowledgement of proportion with an inappropriate centre | ‘6, 5, 4, 8, 7, 6 – lots of reds in there but not a lot will always come out.’ (High centre, reasonable spread) |

1 | Transitional understanding of variation and probability with a variable spread (narrow or wide) and inconsistent centres (low or high) in suggested outcomes OR | ‘3, 9, 10, 3, 6, 8 – can't always be sure of what you would get. You could get something twice or a lower or higher number.’ (High centre, wide spread) |

‘2, 3, 1, 4, 3, 4 – it could go anyway.’ (Low centre, reasonable spread) |

Strictly proportional outcomes with no variation | ‘5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5 – half the number is red, 50/50 chance.’ (Five as centre, strict probability) |

0 | Idiosyncratic explanations with variable spread (narrow or wide) and inconsistent centres (low or high) in suggested outcomes | ‘2, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1 – some might get two and then some might get one’ (Low centre, narrow spread) |

‘4, 5, 1, 3, 6, 8 – numbers that would fit in my hand.’ (Five as centre, wide spread) |