Investment History and Market Orientation Effects in the TFP–FDI Relationship


  • The authors acknowledge two anonymous referees whose comments served to greatly improve this paper. The research is this paper was undertaken while Kukulski was at Western Michigan University. Any opinions or conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Census Bureau. The research in this paper does not use any confidential Census Bureau information. All remaining errors are ours alone.


This paper examines the robustness of previous stochastic dominance tests that find significant total factor productivity (TFP) heterogeneity between firms that export abroad and multinational enterprises (MNEs). We extend this literature by focusing on how ‘within-MNE’ heterogeneity affects the extent to which one can identify the TFP threshold in the exporter–MNE TFP relationship. Within-MNE heterogeneity is established by determining both the number and location of the foreign affiliates established by each MNE. In this way, we separate single-affiliate MNEs from those with multiple affiliates, as well as analyse the role played by vertical FDI, a topic typically ignored in previous stochastic dominance tests of the Helpman et al. (2004, American Economic Review, 94, 300–16) hypothesis. Our empirical tests employ Japanese firm-level FDI and TFP data for the period 1975–2000. Using Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests to determine stochastic dominance, we find significant TFP heterogeneity within the MNE group based on investment history and affiliate geographic location. While our results confirm the standard HMY three-tiered classification to exist for Japanese firms, exporter–MNE ‘between-group’ TFP heterogeneity is sensitive to the ‘within-MNE’ investment history heterogeneity. We note that single- and two-affiliate MNEs are statistically more similar to exporting firms than to MNEs with greater foreign affiliate totals. This shows the exporter–MNE TFP threshold to be not as explicit as Helpman et al. (2004, American Economic Review, 94, 300–16) suggest. In fact, our results allow us to identify the MNE-side width of Girma et al.’s (2005, Economic Letters, 83, 317–24) ‘uncertainty region’ surrounding this threshold. Finally, we also find a strong TFP–market orientation relationship exists where the most productive firms follow complex integration strategies, lesser TFP firms do horizontal FDI, and the least productive MNEs do vertical FDI.