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China’s Growing Influence in Southeast Asia – Monetary Policy and Equity Markets

Authors


  • Helpful suggestions and comments from an anonymous referee are greatly appreciated. Financial support from the Bank of Sweden Tercentenary Foundation, the Swedish Foundation for International Cooperation in Research and Higher Education, and the Swedish School of Advanced Asia-Pacific Studies (SSAAPS) is acknowledged.

Abstract

This study analyses the potential transmission of China’s monetary policy shocks to equity markets in Southeast Asia. Impulse response functions indicate that the impact of a monetary expansion in China is significant and positive for four of the five Southeast Asian equity markets. One explanation for this result is that monetary policy shocks in China lead to an increase in demand for goods and services in both China and abroad, which then shows up in the foreign equity market. The results in this paper provide evidence of China’s influence in Southeast Asia and its financial markets. The transmission effect is small and very short lived, but can be expected to increase if the current trends of a deepening economic integration between China and Southeast Asia and a maturing Chinese central bank continue.

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