ACCOUNTING FOR THE GREAT RECESSION IN THE UK: REAL BUSINESS CYCLES AND FINANCIAL FRICTIONS

Authors

  • JAGJIT S. CHADHA,

    1. School of Economics, Keynes College, University of Kent
    Search for more papers by this author
  • JAMES WARREN

    1. School of Economics, Keynes College, University of Kent
    Search for more papers by this author
    • We thank colleagues at the University of Kent for comments and also thank the attendees of the 2011 Manchester Conference on Business Cycles and Growth and the ESRC for their support. Any remaining errors are our own.


  • Manuscript received 14.9.11; final version received 9.3.12.

Abstract

Using the business cycle accounting (BCA) framework, we examine the 2008–9 recession in the UK. The recession appears to have been mostly driven by shocks to the efficiency wedge in total production, rather than intertemporal (asset price) consumption. From an expenditure perspective this result is consistent with the large observed falls in both consumption and investment. Simulated data from a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which asset price shocks dominate finds no strong role for the intertemporal consumption wedge. This result implies that financial frictions work through more than just this channel.

Ancillary