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Habits, Complementarities and Heterogeneity in Alcohol and Tobacco Demand: A Multivariate Dynamic Model


  • We thank Federico Perali and Luca Piccoli for useful comments and suggestions. This paper is part of the research project ‘Dynamic Analysis of Addiction: Intra-household Resource Allocation, Social Welfare and Public Health’, Department of Economics, University of Verona.


In this paper we test the existence of forward-looking behaviour in a multivariate model for alcohol and tobacco consumption. The theoretical framework, based on a dynamic adjustment cost model with forward-looking behaviour, is enhanced to include the intertemporal interactions between the two goods. The analysis of the within-period preferences completes the intertemporal model, allowing to evaluate the static substitutability/complementarity relationships. The empirical strategy consists in a two-step estimation procedure. In a first stage, we obtain the parameters of the demand system, while in a second stage Euler equations are estimated. Results, based on a cohort data set constructed from a series of cross-sections of the Italian Household Budget Survey, reveal a significant complementarity relationship between alcohol and tobacco. Estimation of the Euler equations does not lead to rejection of the hypothesis of intertemporal dependence, providing evidence for a forward-looking behaviour in alcohol and tobacco consumption. Moreover, we find significant intertemporal interactions that support the adjustment cost setting in a multivariate model with rational expectations.