Assessing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Using Time-varying Parameter Dynamic Factor Models

Authors


  • The author is grateful to John Geweke, Gary Koop, John Maheu, Simon Potter for helpful discussions, and seminar participants at the Rimini Center for Economic Analysis, Banca d'Italia and Université Catholique Louvain for helpful discussions and comments. Comments from the Editor and two anonymous referees have helped to substantially improve this article, for which I am grateful.

Abstract

This article extends the current literature which questions the stability of the monetary transmission mechanism, by proposing a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) model with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. The VAR coefficients and error covariances may change gradually in every period or be subject to abrupt breaks. The model is applied to 143 post-World War II quarterly variables fully describing the US economy. I show that both endogenous and exogenous shocks to the US economy resulted in the high inflation volatility during the 1970s and early 1980s. The time-varying factor augmented VAR produces impulse responses of inflation which significantly reduce the price puzzle. Impulse responses of other indicators of the economy show that the most notable changes in the transmission of unanticipated monetary policy shocks occurred for gross domestic product, investment, exchange rates and money.

Ancillary