We thank Antonio Ciccone, Carl-Johan Dalgaard, John Sutton, and Jonathan Temple, as well as participants at the 2006 European Economic Association and 2007 Royal Economic Society meetings for their valuable comments. Ioanna Stylianou provided excellent research assistance. Detailed descriptions of the data as well as the data are available upon request.
Are Any Growth Theories Robust?*
Article first published online: 20 FEB 2008
© 2008 The Author(s)
The Economic Journal
Volume 118, Issue 527, pages 329–346, March 2008
How to Cite
Durlauf, S. N., Kourtellos, A. and Tan, C. M. (2008), Are Any Growth Theories Robust?. The Economic Journal, 118: 329–346. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2007.02123.x
- Issue published online: 20 FEB 2008
- Article first published online: 20 FEB 2008
This article investigates the strength of empirical evidence for various growth theories when there is model uncertainty with respect to the correct growth model. Using model averaging methods, we find little evidence that so-called fundamental growth theories play an important role in explaining aggregate growth. In contrast, we find strong evidence for macroeconomic policy effects and a role for unexplained regional heterogeneity, as well as some evidence of parameter heterogeneity in the aggregate production function. We conclude that the ability of cross-country growth regressions to adjudicate the relative importance of alternative growth theories is limited.