Conservative Central Banks and Nominal Growth, Exchange Rate and Inflation Targets



A framework is developed in which inflation biases with different target variables are compared. A nominal growth target measured in consumer prices may yield less stabilization bias than a nominal income growth target. Exchange rate and inflation targets result in less stabilization bias than an income growth target the more important the terms-of-trade stabilization. Persistence in output causes excessive stabilization of productivity shocks and of shocks to the terms of trade under discretion. An inflation-weight conservative central bank is more likely under an inflation target than under an exchange rate target, and less likely under a nominal income growth target.