SEQUENTIAL VOTING WHEN LONG ELECTIONS ARE COSTLY
*Corresponding author: Patrick Hummel, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, 518 Memorial Way, Stanford, CA 94305, USA. E-mail: phummel@stanford.edu
Abstract
This paper analyzes sequential voting in binary elections when voters are motivated by a desire both to elect their preferred candidate and to avoid a long and costly election. I find a unique equilibrium in which a voter's action depends both on the intensity of the voter's preferences as well as how well the candidates have done in earlier voting rounds. This equilibrium results in momentum in which voters are more likely to vote for the candidate currently in the lead. Furthermore, the probability a voter votes for a candidate is increasing in the size of the candidate's lead. As a consequence, a candidate is more likely to win the election if the candidate's stronger supporters vote earlier in the election.