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Keywords:

  • equity risk premium;
  • predictability;
  • dividend prices;
  • asset pricing models

Abstract

This paper studies the link between short- and long-run risk premia. We extract short-term risk premia from contemporaneous information on short-term futures and cash equity markets under the assumption of no arbitrage. Predictability regressions reveal that short-term risk premia capture different information from long-run risk premia. Counter to the intuition that a high price of risk commands high returns, high short-run risk premia on dividend claims predict low returns on the index. While inconsistent with models featuring either habit persistence or long-run risk, the results may be reconciled with some models of uncertainty aversion.