A distributed problem-solving framework for probabilistic software effort estimation

Abstract

Distributed problem-solving (DPS) systems use a framework of human organizational notions and principles of intelligent systems to solve complex problems. Human organizational notions are used to decompose a complex problem into sub-problems that can be solved using intelligent systems. The solutions of these sub-problems are combined to solve the original complex problem. In this paper, we propose a DPS system for probabilistic estimation of software development effort. Using a real-world software engineering dataset, we compare the performance of the DPS system with a neural network (NN) and show that the performance of the DPS system is equal to or better than that of the NN with the additional benefits of modularity, probabilistic estimates, greater interpretability, flexibility and capability to handle incomplete input data.