Predicting short-term disease progression among HIV-infected patients in Asia and the Pacific region: preliminary results from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD)
Article first published online: 5 MAY 2005
Volume 6, Issue 3, pages 216–223, May 2005
How to Cite
Zhou, J., Kumarasamy, N. and on behalf of the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (2005), Predicting short-term disease progression among HIV-infected patients in Asia and the Pacific region: preliminary results from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD). HIV Medicine, 6: 216–223. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-1293.2005.00292.x
- Issue published online: 5 MAY 2005
- Article first published online: 5 MAY 2005
- Received: 27 August 2004, accepted 12 January 2005
- disease progression;
- observational database
HIV disease progression has been well documented in Western populations. This study aimed to estimate the short-term risk of AIDS and death from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD), a prospective, multicentre cohort study in Asia and the Pacific region.
Prospective data were analysed to estimate short-term disease progression. Endpoints were defined as the time from study entry to diagnosis with AIDS or death. Antiretroviral treatment was fitted as a time-dependent variable. Predictors of disease progression were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models, and prognostic models were developed using Weibull models.
A total of 1260 patients with prospective follow-up data contributed 477 person-years of follow-up, during which 18 patients died and 34 were diagnosed with AIDS, a combined rate of 10.1 per 100 person-years. Compared with patients receiving antiretroviral treatment, patients not on treatment had a higher rate of disease progression (17.6 vs. 8.1 per 100 person-years, respectively). Baseline CD4 count was the strongest predictor of disease progression. Prognostic models, using either a baseline CD4 count as the sole marker or markers including baseline haemoglobin, AIDS-related symptoms and previous or current antiretroviral treatment, were successful at identifying patients at high risk of short-term disease progression.
Similar to the situation in Western countries, baseline CD4 count was the strongest predictor of short-term disease progression. Prognostic models based on readily available clinical data and haemoglobin level should be useful in estimating short-term clinical risk in HIV-infected patients in Asia and the Pacific region.