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Predicting short-term disease progression among HIV-infected patients in Asia and the Pacific region: preliminary results from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD)

  1. J Zhou1,
  2. N Kumarasamy2,
  3. on behalf of the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database1

Article first published online: 5 MAY 2005

DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-1293.2005.00292.x

Issue

HIV Medicine

HIV Medicine

Volume 6, Issue 3, pages 216–223, May 2005

Additional Information

How to Cite

Zhou, J., Kumarasamy, N. and on behalf of the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (2005), Predicting short-term disease progression among HIV-infected patients in Asia and the Pacific region: preliminary results from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD). HIV Medicine, 6: 216–223. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-1293.2005.00292.x

Author Information

  1. 1

    National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, and

  2. 2

    YRG Centre for AIDS Research and Education, Chennai, India

* Mr Jialun (Julian) Zhou, National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Level 2, 376 Victoria Street, Darlinghurst, NSW 2010, Australia. Tel:+612 93850900; fax:+612 93850920; e-mail: jzhou@nchecr.unsw.edu.au

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 5 MAY 2005
  2. Article first published online: 5 MAY 2005
  3. Received: 27 August 2004, accepted 12 January 2005

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Keywords:

  • HIV;
  • AIDS;
  • disease progression;
  • observational database

Objectives

HIV disease progression has been well documented in Western populations. This study aimed to estimate the short-term risk of AIDS and death from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD), a prospective, multicentre cohort study in Asia and the Pacific region.

Methods

Prospective data were analysed to estimate short-term disease progression. Endpoints were defined as the time from study entry to diagnosis with AIDS or death. Antiretroviral treatment was fitted as a time-dependent variable. Predictors of disease progression were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models, and prognostic models were developed using Weibull models.

Results

A total of 1260 patients with prospective follow-up data contributed 477 person-years of follow-up, during which 18 patients died and 34 were diagnosed with AIDS, a combined rate of 10.1 per 100 person-years. Compared with patients receiving antiretroviral treatment, patients not on treatment had a higher rate of disease progression (17.6 vs. 8.1 per 100 person-years, respectively). Baseline CD4 count was the strongest predictor of disease progression. Prognostic models, using either a baseline CD4 count as the sole marker or markers including baseline haemoglobin, AIDS-related symptoms and previous or current antiretroviral treatment, were successful at identifying patients at high risk of short-term disease progression.

Conclusions

Similar to the situation in Western countries, baseline CD4 count was the strongest predictor of short-term disease progression. Prognostic models based on readily available clinical data and haemoglobin level should be useful in estimating short-term clinical risk in HIV-infected patients in Asia and the Pacific region.

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