The Recession and the New Economy of the West: The Familiar Boom and Bust Cycle?

Authors

  • Patricia H. Gude,

    researcher
    1. Headwaters Economics, Bozeman, MT, USA
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    • Patricia H. Gude is a researcher at Headwaters Economics, 810 N Wallace Avenue, Suite D, Bozeman, MT 59715, USA. Her e-mail address is patty@headwaterseconomics.org. Ray Rasker is the Executive Director of Headwaters Economics, 810 N Wallace Avenue, Suite D, Bozeman, MT 59715, USA. His e-mail address is ray@headwaterseconomics.org. Kingsford L. Jones is a statistical consultant at Objectivestat Consulting, 108 N Broadway Street, Manhattan, MT 59741, USA. His e-mail address is kingsford@objectivestat.com. Julia H. Haggerty is a researcher at Headwaters Economics, 810 N Wallace Avenue, Suite D, Bozeman, MT 59715, USA. Her e-mail address is julia@headwaterseconomics.org. Mark C. Greenwood is an associate professor at Montana State University, Department of Mathematical Sciences, PO Box 172400, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA. His e-mail address is greenwood@math.montana.edu. The authors would like to thank Steve Cherry at the Montana State University Department of Mathematical Sciences, who reviewed the work with Simultaneous Autoregressive Models.
  • Ray Rasker,

    Executive Director
    1. Headwaters Economics, Bozeman, MT, USA
    Search for more papers by this author
    • Patricia H. Gude is a researcher at Headwaters Economics, 810 N Wallace Avenue, Suite D, Bozeman, MT 59715, USA. Her e-mail address is patty@headwaterseconomics.org. Ray Rasker is the Executive Director of Headwaters Economics, 810 N Wallace Avenue, Suite D, Bozeman, MT 59715, USA. His e-mail address is ray@headwaterseconomics.org. Kingsford L. Jones is a statistical consultant at Objectivestat Consulting, 108 N Broadway Street, Manhattan, MT 59741, USA. His e-mail address is kingsford@objectivestat.com. Julia H. Haggerty is a researcher at Headwaters Economics, 810 N Wallace Avenue, Suite D, Bozeman, MT 59715, USA. Her e-mail address is julia@headwaterseconomics.org. Mark C. Greenwood is an associate professor at Montana State University, Department of Mathematical Sciences, PO Box 172400, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA. His e-mail address is greenwood@math.montana.edu. The authors would like to thank Steve Cherry at the Montana State University Department of Mathematical Sciences, who reviewed the work with Simultaneous Autoregressive Models.
  • Kingsford L. Jones,

    statistical consultant
    1. Objectivestat Consulting, 108 N Broadway Street, Manhattan, MT, USA
    Search for more papers by this author
    • Patricia H. Gude is a researcher at Headwaters Economics, 810 N Wallace Avenue, Suite D, Bozeman, MT 59715, USA. Her e-mail address is patty@headwaterseconomics.org. Ray Rasker is the Executive Director of Headwaters Economics, 810 N Wallace Avenue, Suite D, Bozeman, MT 59715, USA. His e-mail address is ray@headwaterseconomics.org. Kingsford L. Jones is a statistical consultant at Objectivestat Consulting, 108 N Broadway Street, Manhattan, MT 59741, USA. His e-mail address is kingsford@objectivestat.com. Julia H. Haggerty is a researcher at Headwaters Economics, 810 N Wallace Avenue, Suite D, Bozeman, MT 59715, USA. Her e-mail address is julia@headwaterseconomics.org. Mark C. Greenwood is an associate professor at Montana State University, Department of Mathematical Sciences, PO Box 172400, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA. His e-mail address is greenwood@math.montana.edu. The authors would like to thank Steve Cherry at the Montana State University Department of Mathematical Sciences, who reviewed the work with Simultaneous Autoregressive Models.
  • Julia H. Haggerty,

    researcher
    1. Headwaters Economics, Bozeman, MT, USA
    Search for more papers by this author
    • Patricia H. Gude is a researcher at Headwaters Economics, 810 N Wallace Avenue, Suite D, Bozeman, MT 59715, USA. Her e-mail address is patty@headwaterseconomics.org. Ray Rasker is the Executive Director of Headwaters Economics, 810 N Wallace Avenue, Suite D, Bozeman, MT 59715, USA. His e-mail address is ray@headwaterseconomics.org. Kingsford L. Jones is a statistical consultant at Objectivestat Consulting, 108 N Broadway Street, Manhattan, MT 59741, USA. His e-mail address is kingsford@objectivestat.com. Julia H. Haggerty is a researcher at Headwaters Economics, 810 N Wallace Avenue, Suite D, Bozeman, MT 59715, USA. Her e-mail address is julia@headwaterseconomics.org. Mark C. Greenwood is an associate professor at Montana State University, Department of Mathematical Sciences, PO Box 172400, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA. His e-mail address is greenwood@math.montana.edu. The authors would like to thank Steve Cherry at the Montana State University Department of Mathematical Sciences, who reviewed the work with Simultaneous Autoregressive Models.
  • Mark C. Greenwood

    associate professor
    1. Montana State University, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Bozeman, MT, USA
    Search for more papers by this author
    • Patricia H. Gude is a researcher at Headwaters Economics, 810 N Wallace Avenue, Suite D, Bozeman, MT 59715, USA. Her e-mail address is patty@headwaterseconomics.org. Ray Rasker is the Executive Director of Headwaters Economics, 810 N Wallace Avenue, Suite D, Bozeman, MT 59715, USA. His e-mail address is ray@headwaterseconomics.org. Kingsford L. Jones is a statistical consultant at Objectivestat Consulting, 108 N Broadway Street, Manhattan, MT 59741, USA. His e-mail address is kingsford@objectivestat.com. Julia H. Haggerty is a researcher at Headwaters Economics, 810 N Wallace Avenue, Suite D, Bozeman, MT 59715, USA. Her e-mail address is julia@headwaterseconomics.org. Mark C. Greenwood is an associate professor at Montana State University, Department of Mathematical Sciences, PO Box 172400, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA. His e-mail address is greenwood@math.montana.edu. The authors would like to thank Steve Cherry at the Montana State University Department of Mathematical Sciences, who reviewed the work with Simultaneous Autoregressive Models.

Abstract

The U.S. West has gone through many periods of economic boom and bust, most of which were associated with rapid rises and declines in commodity markets. The recent structural shift toward a primarily service-based economy begs the question of whether the driving forces behind the cycles of boom and bust also may be shifting away from commodities toward people and their resources. This paper explores several factors that contributed to growth in the 1990s and 2000s: asking whether these factors created any advantages or disadvantages during the most recent recession and whether the shift away from commodity production to a knowledge- and human capital-intensive economy has implications for how local areas experience the boom–bust cycle.

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