• recidivism;
  • desistence;
  • violence;
  • self-report

Abstract: Serious violence is often not reported to the police. Most violent offenders are either never arrested or only arrested for non-violent offences. Yet, most recidivism studies rely on data from perpetrators known to the criminal justice system, leaving the recidivism risk for certain offenders largely unexplored. This study uses data from self-admitted but otherwise unidentified violent offenders to statistically identify the factors influencing respondent self-assessments of whether they would violently reoffend. Results for young adults are compared with those of juveniles, indicating that different factors influence self-predictions between the two groups. The practical implications of this are discussed.