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ABSTRACT

The negative relation between capital investments and subsequent stock returns, found in the United States, is not observed in Japan, which is inconsistent with the risk-based explanation. More specifically, we find no significant relation between capital expenditures (CE) and subsequent stock returns for either the entire sample or for keiretsu firms. However, in the pre-1990 subperiod, there is a positive relation between increased CE and subsequent risk-adjusted returns among independent firms, especially for those firms that have high cash flows and/or low leverage. These results are consistent with existing evidence that independent firms are financially constrained in the pre-1990 period and that keiretsu main bank monitoring effectively controls the overinvestment problem.