Author’s notes: The author would like to acknowledge the support of David Lanoue, Cliff Morgan, and Ashley Leeds, as well as the NSF-SES-0611582 and NSF-SES-0137792 grants, extended by the National Science Foundation. Correspondence should be directed to Valentin.L.Krustev@gmail.com.
Strategic Demands, Credible Threats, and Economic Coercion Outcomes
Article first published online: 9 MAR 2010
© 2010 International Studies Association
International Studies Quarterly
Volume 54, Issue 1, pages 147–174, March 2010
How to Cite
Krustev, V. L. (2010), Strategic Demands, Credible Threats, and Economic Coercion Outcomes. International Studies Quarterly, 54: 147–174. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2478.2009.00581.x
- Issue published online: 9 MAR 2010
- Article first published online: 9 MAR 2010
The crisis bargaining literature sees demands as endogenous to crises. However, despite the parallels between military and economic coercion, sanctions researchers have preferred to analyze economic coercion after demands have been issued, and have not explored sufficiently the possibility that when senders formulate their policy objectives, they consider the international constraints imposed by the capabilities and interests of target states. I complement the sanctions literature by deriving the implications of strategic goal formulation in a game theoretic model of economic coercion that assumes endogenous demands. The model explains the inconsistent empirical relationship between sanctions costs and outcomes as well as the paradoxical tendency of senders to select into difficult disputes. I find that threats are not always more effective than sanctions and suggest what an optimal sanctions policy might look like.