Demographischer Wandel und internationale Finanzmärkte


*Korrespondenzadresse: Prof. Dr. H. Fehr, Lehrstuhl für Finanzwissenschaft, Universität Würzburg, Sanderring 2, D-97070 Würzburg, – Die Verfasser danken einem anonymen Gutachter für hilfreiche Anregungen und Ergänzungsvorschläge sowie der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft (FE 377/4-2) für die finanzielle Förderung.


Abstract: The present article surveys recent studies which analyse specific aspects of the impact of demographic changes on international capital markets. We first present the most recent population trends in important OECD countries, then we discuss the consequences for aggregate world savings, interest rates, asset prices and capital flows. Overall, the existing theoretical and empirical evidence is highly inconsistent. While it seems to be most likely that population ageing will decrease world interest rates and increase the risk premium, some recent simulation models yield exactly the opposite results. Finally, if Asian countries continue to grow as in the past, they will supply the capital for Europe by the middle of this century.