Die Auswirkungen der demographischen Veränderungen auf die Budgetstrukturen der öffentlichen Haushalte

Abstract: We examine the impact of demographic change on the level and the structure of federal, state and local government expenditures in Germany up to the year 2020 by using estimates of the age structure sensitivity of spending in almost 30 functions. Special attention is given to differences between East and West Germany. Whereas East German state and local governments can expect significant savings from shrinking population size and from shifts in the age structure, subnational government budgets in the West are only slightly affected. Federal government spending will increase due to the rise in spending on the elderly. The results suggest that significant adjustments of public budgets at the expenditure side are necessary in order to cope with the fiscal challenges of demographic change.