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War die Finanzkrise vorhersehbar?


Korrespondenzadresse: Universität Graz, Konsulent des Österreichischen Instituts für Wirtschaftforschung, Vinzenz Hess-Gasse 9b, A-1130 Wien, e-mail: – Der Autor dankt seinem Kollegen F. Hahn und den beiden Gutachtern für wertvolle Anregungen und Kommentare.


Abstract: The Queen's question “Why did no one see it coming” provoked professional economists as well. A fierce discussion arose how to modify and improve theory and models. A survey of the literature reveals that almost a hundred analyses warned against the instability of several mechanism, be it bubbles, oversupply of funds, financial innovations, behaviour of financial institutions or regulation. Most observers predicted a recession, nobody a worldwide crisis. The crisis arose as all these mechanisms worked together and produced a surprise. Surprises appear to be the central elements of deep financial crises. Therefore the chances are odd for forecasting.