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Keywords:

  • prediction;
  • nested logit;
  • mixed logit;
  • latent class models;
  • corporate takeovers

Abstract:  Econometric models involving a discrete outcome dependent variable abound in the finance and accounting literatures. However, much of the literature to date utilises a basic or standard logit model. Capitalising on recent developments in the discrete choice literature, we examine three advanced (or non-IID) logit models, namely: nested logit, mixed logit and latent class MNL. Using an illustration from corporate takeovers research, we compare the explanatory and predictive performance of each class of advanced model relative to the standard model. We find that in all cases the more advanced logit model structures, which correct for the highly restrictive IID and IIA conditions, provide significantly greater explanatory power than standard logit. Mixed logit and latent class MNL models exhibited the highest overall predictive accuracy on a holdout sample, while the standard logit model performed the worst. Moreover, the analysis of marginal effects of all models indicates that use of advanced models can lead to more insightful and behaviourally meaningful interpretations of the role and influence of explanatory variables and parameter estimates in model estimation. The results of this paper have implications for the use of more optimal logit structures in future research and practice.