Minimizing false-negatives when predicting the potential distribution of an invasive species: a bioclimatic envelope for the red-eared slider at global and regional scales
Article first published online: 4 NOV 2010
© 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2009 The Zoological Society of London
Special Issue: Excerpts from the 6th World Conference of Herpetology
Volume 13, Issue Supplement s1, pages 5–15, December 2010
How to Cite
Heidy Kikillus, K., Hare, K. M. and Hartley, S. (2010), Minimizing false-negatives when predicting the potential distribution of an invasive species: a bioclimatic envelope for the red-eared slider at global and regional scales. Animal Conservation, 13: 5–15. doi: 10.1111/j.1469-1795.2008.00299.x
- Issue published online: 4 NOV 2010
- Article first published online: 4 NOV 2010
- Received 9 December 2008; accepted 7 May 2009
Table S1. Sources of red-eared slider (Trachemys scripta elegans) confirmed breeding records (‘conservative dataset’) used to generate a global distribution map of the species.
Table S2. Sources of red-eared slider (Trachemys scripta elegans) location records where breeding status is unknown or unconfirmed (‘liberal dataset’) used to generate a global distribution map of the species. All records from the conservative dataset were also included into the ‘liberal dataset’ for analyses.
Table S3. Comparison of models from Table 1 using the liberal dataset (all red-eared slider Trachemys scripta elegans) records. (a) Cross-validation indicates performance in predicting withheld, geographically separated, test data (mean of ten partitions), pAUC=partial area under the curve measured where specificity ≥0.95. (b) Performance under self-validation, where all available data was used to make final predictions of suitability. (c) Model weights determined from the number of times models were selected as the best predictive model (i.e., the one with the highest pAUC of the test data). Models in bold account for greater than 50% of the total weight. (d) Suitability score=rank of New Zealand's most suitable site relative to all the positive location records, based on the modelled probability of occurrence. A score of 0.8 indicates that New Zealand's most suitable site is modelled as being at least as favourable as 80% of the locations from which RES have been recorded.
Table S4. Excel spreadsheet of research location records used.
R script S1. Code to fit individual models, calculate weights and multimodel averages, and produce Fig. 3.
Figure S1. (a) Red-eared slider (RES; Trachemys scripta elegans) climate envelope of the best model, ‘model l’ (Table 1), fitted to the liberal dataset at three different levels of precipitation: (i) <300 mm/year, (ii) 300–1200 mm/year, and (iii) >1200 mm/year. Black squares indicate sites with a recorded presence. White dots are sites where RES is presumed absent, but for clarity only a 20% random sample of all presumed absences have been drawn. Purple diamonds show New Zealand's top ten most suitable RES sites. To calculate predicted probabilities MINMIN (not shown) was set equal to MINAVG minus 5°C, MAXMAX (not shown) was set equal to MAXAVG plus 5°C, and MAT (not shown) was set to the average of MINAVG and MAXAVG. (b) Global bioclimatic predictions derived from the weighted multimodel for areas of suitable RES habitat derived from the liberal dataset (unconfirmed RES breeding). The red areas denote a more suitable climate for RES than blue areas. (c) Vertical lines and summary box plots illustrate the distribution of predicted probability of occurrence for all RES occupied sites (top) with the central line equal to the median, boxes extend from the 10th to 90th percentile and whiskers across the full range. These percentiles are used to define a relative suitability score. Below is the distribution of suitability for all sites available in New Zealand. (d) Bioclimatic predictions for areas of suitable RES habitat, derived from weighted multimodel applied to higher resolution climate data of New Zealand and utilising the liberal dataset (unconfirmed breeding records). The red areas denote a more suitable climate than blue areas for RES. (e) Colour-coding for the suitability scale (refer to part (A) and text for details).
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