Fig. S1 Relationship between area of mature transgenics and transgenic basal area for a trait with neutral fitness (Neut.), and insect resistance (Bt) and with fertility of 0.5 and 0.1.

Fig. S2 Seed production per catkin from controlled crosses involving P. trichocarpa × P. deltoides (TD) hybrids and P. trichocarpa (T) wild trees.

Fig. S3 Comparison of modeled versus observed pollen flow from plantations. Points represent observed pollination as determined from paternity analyses.

Fig. S4 Comparison of modeled versus observed seed flow from plantations. Points represent observed percentage hybrid seeds as determined from maternity analyses of seeds captured in traps near plantations at River Ranch.

Fig. S5 Least square means from fractional factorial for lower and upper values of main effects explanatory variables in an analysis that varied each main effect by ± 10% from default values.

Table S1 Description of habitat types in original data layers

Table S2 Classes used in phenology measurements

Table S3 Frequency and extent of cottonwood clones in the wild for a variety of studies

Table S4 Baseline conditions for sensitivity analyses

Table S5 Parameter values used in fractional factorial analyses

Table S6 Baseline conditions for risk assessment analyses

Methods S1 Landscape data.

Methods S2 Disturbance.

Methods S3 Production and dispersal of pollen, seeds, and vegetative propagules.

Methods S4 Establishment and competition.

Methods S5 Sensitivity analysis.

Methods S6 Risk assessment simulations.

Methods S7 Insect resistance scenario.

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