BIODIVERSITY VIEWPOINT

You have free access to this content

Moving beyond static species distribution models in support of conservation biogeography

  1. Janet Franklin

Article first published online: 12 FEB 2010

DOI: 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00641.x

Issue

Diversity and Distributions

Diversity and Distributions

Special Issue: Special Issue: Conservation biogeography - foundations, concepts and challenges

Volume 16, Issue 3, pages 321–330, May 2010

Additional Information

How to Cite

Franklin, J. (2010), Moving beyond static species distribution models in support of conservation biogeography. Diversity and Distributions, 16: 321–330. doi: 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00641.x

Author Information

  1. School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning and School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA

*Janet Franklin, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University P.O. Box 875302, Tempe, AZ 85287-5302, USA. E-mail: Janet.Franklin@asu.edu

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 13 APR 2010
  2. Article first published online: 12 FEB 2010

SEARCH

SEARCH BY CITATION

ARTICLE TOOLS

View Full Article (HTML) Get PDF (303K)

References

  • Akcakaya, H.R. (2001) Linking population-level risk assessment with landscape and habitat models. Science of the Total Environment, 274, 283–291.
  • Akçakaya, H.R. (2000) Viability analyses with habitat-based metapopulation models. Population Ecology, 42, 45–53.
  • Akçakaya, H.R. (2002) RAMAS GIS: linking landscape data with population viability analysis . Version 4.0 . Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, NY.
  • Akçakaya, H.R. & Atwood, J.L. (1997) A habitat based metapopulation model of the California gnatcatcher. Conservation Biology, 11, 422–434.
    Direct Link:
  • Akçakaya, H.R. & Burgman, M. (1995) PVA in theory and practice. Conservation Biology, 9, 705–707.
  • Akçakaya, R.H. & Regan, H.M. (2002) Population models: individual-based. Ecological modeling in risk assessment: chemical effects on populations, ecosystems and landscapes, (ed. by R.A.Pastorok, S.M.Bartell, S.Ferson and L.R.Ginzburg), pp. 83–95. Lewis Publishers, Boca Raton FL.
  • Akçakaya, H.R., Radeloff, V.C., Mlandenoff, D.J. & He, H.S. (2004) Integrating landscape and metapopulation modeling approaches: Viability of the sharp-tailed grouse in a dynamic landscape. Conservation Biology, 18, 526–537.
    Direct Link:
  • Akçakaya, H.R., Franklin, J., Syphard, A.D. & Stephenson, J.R. (2005) Viability of Bell’s Sage Sparrow (Amphispiza belli ssp. belli) under altered fire regimes. Ecological Applications, 15, 521–531.
  • Akçakaya, H.R., Butchart, S.H.M., Mace, G.M., Stuart, S.N. & Hilton-Taylor, C. (2006) Use and misuse of the IUCN Red List Criteria in projecting climate change impacts on biodiversity. Global Change Biology, 12, 2037–2043.
    Direct Link:
  • Anderson, B.J., Akcakaya, H.R., Araújo, M.B., Fordham, D.A., Martinez-Meyer, E., Thuiller, W. & Brook, B.W. (2009) Dynamics of range margins for metapopulations under climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276, 1415–1420.
  • Araújo, M.B. & Guisan, A. (2006) Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling. Journal of Biogeography, 33, 1677–1688.
    Direct Link:
  • Araújo, M.B., Pearson, R.G., Thuiller, W. & Erhard, M. (2005) Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change. Global Change Biology, 11, 1504–1513.
    Direct Link:
  • Araújo, M.B., Thuiller, W. & Pearson, R.G. (2006) Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe. Journal of Biogeography, 33, 1712–1728.
    Direct Link:
  • Austin, M.P. (1992) Modelling the environmental niche of plants: some implications for plant community response to elevation CO2 levels. Australian Journal of Botany, 40, 615–630.
  • Beissinger, S.R. & McCullough, D.R. (2002) Population viability analysis, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
  • Bomhard, B., Richardson, D.M., Donaldson, J.S., Hughes, G.O., Midgley, G.F., Raimondo, T., Rebelo, A.G., Rouget, M. & Thuiller, W. (2005) Potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the Red List status of the Proteaceae in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa. Global Change Biology, 11, 1452–1468.
    Direct Link:
  • Botkin, D.B., Saxe, H., Araújo, M.B., Betts, R., Bradshaw, R.H.W., Cedhagen, T., Chesson, P., Dawson, T.P., Etterson, J.R., Faith, D.P., Ferrier, S., Guisan, A., Hansen, A.S., Hilbert, D.W., Loehle, C., Margules, C., New, M., Sobel, M.J. & Stockwell, D.R.B. (2007) Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity. BioScience, 57, 227–236.
  • Brigham, C.A. & Thomson, D.M. (2003) Approaches to modeling population viability in plants: an overview. Population Viability in Plants: Conservation, Management, and Modeling of Rare Plants (ed. by C.A.Brigham and M.W.Schwartz), pp. 145–171. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
  • Brook, B.W., Akçakaya, R.H., Keith, D.A., Mace, G.M., Pearson, R.G. & Araújo, M.B. (2009) Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change. Biology Letters, 5, 723–724.
  • Carey, P.D. (1996) DISPERSE: a cellular automaton for predicting the distribution of species in changed climates. Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters, 5, 217–226.
  • Carmel, Y. & Flather, C.H. (2006) Constrained range expansion and climate change assessments. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 4, 178–179.
  • Carroll, C. (2007) Interacting effects of climate change, landscape conversion, and harvest on carnivore populations at the range margin: Marten and Lynx in the northern Appalachians. Conservation Biology, 21, 1092–1104.
    Direct Link:
  • Cayan, D.R., Maurer, E.P., Dettinger, M.D., Tyree, M. & Hayhoe, K. (2008) Climate change scenarios for the California region. Climatic Change, 87, S21–S42.
  • Clark, J.S. (1998) Why trees migrate so fast: confronting theory with dispersal biology and the paleorecord. American Naturalist, 152, 204–224.
  • Dullinger, S., Dirnböck, T. & Grabherr, G. (2004) Modelling climate change-driven treeline shifts: relative effects of temperature increase, dispersal and invasibility. The Journal of Ecology, 92, 241–252.
    Direct Link:
  • Elith, J. & Leathwick, J. (2009) Conservation prioritisation using species distribution modelling. Spatial conservation prioritization: quantitative methods and computational tools, (ed. by A.Moilanen, K.A.Wilson and H.Possingham), pp. 70–93. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
  • Elith, J., Graham, C.H., Anderson, R.P. et al. (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data. Ecography, 29, 129–151.
    Direct Link:
  • Engler, R. & Guisan, A. (2009) MigClim: predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate. Diversity and Distributions, 15, 590–601.
    Direct Link:
  • Fitzpatrick, M.C., Gove, A.D., Sanders, N.J. & Dunn, R.R. (2008) Climate change, plant migration, and range collapse in a global biodiversity hotspot: the Banksia (Proteaceae) of Western Australia. Global Change Biology, 14, 1337–1352.
    Direct Link:
  • Franklin, J. (1995) Predictive vegetation mapping: geographic modelling of biospatial patterns in relation to environmental gradients. Progress in Physical Geography, 19, 474–499.
  • Franklin, J. (2002) Enhancing a regional vegetation map with predictive models of dominant plant species in chaparral. Applied Vegetation Science, 5, 135–146.
    Direct Link:
  • Franklin, J. (2009) Mapping species distributions: spatial inference and prediction, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
  • Franklin, J., Syphard, A.D., He, H.S. & Mladenoff, D.J. (2005) The effects of altered fire regimes on patterns of plant succession in the foothills and mountains of southern California. Ecosystems, 8, 885–898.
  • Goodchild, M.F. (1992) Geographical data modeling. Computers & Geosciences, 18, 401–408.
  • Goodchild, M.F. (1994) Integrating GIS and remote sensing for vegetation analysis and modeling: methodological issues. Journal of Vegetation Science, 5, 615–626.
    Direct Link:
  • Guisan, A. & Thuiller, W. (2005) Predicting species distributions: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecology Letters, 8, 993–1009.
    Direct Link:
  • Guisan, A. & Zimmermann, N.E. (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling, 135, 147–186.
  • Guisan, A., Lehmann, A., Ferrier, S., Austin, M., Overton, J.M.C., Aspinall, R. & Hastie, T. (2006) Making better biogeographical predictions of species’ distributions. The Journal of Applied Ecology, 43, 386–392.
    Direct Link:
  • Gustafson, E.J., Zollner, P.A., Sturtevant, B.R., He, H.S. & Mladenoff, D.J. (2004) Influence of forest management alternatives and land type on susceptibility to fire in northern Wisconsin, USA. Landscape Ecology, 19, 327–341.
  • Hanski, I. (1994) A practical model of metapopulation dynamics. Journal of Animal Ecology, 63, 151–162.
  • He, H.S. & Mladenoff, D.J. (1999) Spatially explicit and stochastic simulation of forest-landscape fire disturbance and succession. Ecology, 80, 81–90.
  • He, H.S., Mladenoff, D.J., Radeloff, V.C. & Crow, T.R. (1998) Integration of GIS data and classified satellite imagery for regional forest assessment. Ecological Applications, 8, 1072–1083.
  • Heikkinen, R.K., Luoto, M., Araújo, M.B., Virkkala, R., Thuiller, W. & Sykes, M.T. (2006) Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change. Progress in Physical Geography, 30, 751–777.
  • Henle, K., Lindenmayer, D.B., Margules, C.R., Saunders, D.A. & Wissel, C. (2004) Species survival in fragmented landscapes: where are we now? Biodiversity and Conservation, 13, 1–8.
  • Higgins, S.I. & Richardson, D.M. (1996) A review of models of alien plant spread. Ecological Modelling, 87, 249–265.
  • Higgins, S.I., Clark, J.S., Nathan, R., Hovestadt, T., Schurr, F., Fragoso, J.M.V., Aguiar, M.R., Ribbens, E. & Lavorel, S. (2003) Forecasting plant migration rates: managing uncertainty for risk assessment. The Journal of Ecology, 91, 341–347.
    Direct Link:
  • Iverson, L.R., Schwartz, M.W. & Prasad, A.M. (2004a) How fast and far might tree species migrate in the eastern United States due to climate change? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 13, 209–219.
    Direct Link:
  • Iverson, L.R., Schwartz, M.W. & Prasad, A.M. (2004b) Potential colonization of newly available tree-species habitat under climate change: an analysis for five eastern US species. Landscape Ecology, 19, 787–799.
  • Keith, D.A., Akçakaya, H.R., Thuiller, W., Midgley, G.F., Pearson, R.G., Phillips, S.J., Regan, H.M., Araújo, M.B. & Rebelo, T.G. (2008) Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models. Biology Letters, 4, 560–563.
  • Kindvall, O. & Bergman, K.-O. (2004) Woodland brown butterfly (Lopinga achine) in Sweden: viability in a dynamic landscape maintained by grazing. Species conservation and management: case studies (ed. by R.Akcakaya, M.A.Burgman, O.Kindvall, C.C.Wood, P.Sjogren-Gulve, J.S.Hatfield and M.A.McCarthy), pp. 171–178. Oxford University Press, New York.
  • Kueppers, L.M., Snyder, M.A., Sloan, L.C., Zavaleta, E.S. & Fulfrost, B. (2005) Modeled regional climate change and California endemic oak ranges. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 102, 16281–16286.
  • Kueppers, L.M., Zavaleta, E., Fulfrost, B., Snyder, M.A. & Sloan, L.C. (2006) Constrained range expansion and climate change assessments - The authors reply. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 4, 179–179.
  • Larson, M.A., Thompson, F.R., Millspaugh, J.J., Dijak, W.D. & Shifley, S.R. (2004) Linking population viability, habitat suitability, and landscape simulation models for conservation planning. Ecological Modelling, 180, 103–118.
  • Lawler, J.J., Shafer, S.L., White, D., Kareiva, P., Maurer, E.P., Blaustein, A.R. & Bartlein, P.J. (2009) Projected climate-induced faunal changes in the Western Hemisphere. Ecology, 90, 588–597.
  • Lawson, D.M., Regan, H.M., Zedler, P.H. & Franklin, J. (2009) Cumulative effects of land use, altered fire regime and climate change on persistence of Ceanothus verrucosus, a rare, fire dependent plant species. Global Change Biology, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02143.x.
  • Lindenmayer, D.B. & Possingham, H.P. (1996) Modelling the inter-relationships between habitat patchiness, dispersal capability and metapopulation persistence of the endangered species, Leadbeater’s possum, in south-eastern Australia. Landscape Ecology, 11, 79–105.
  • Lozier, J.D., Aniello, P. & Hickerson, M.J. (2009) Predicting the distribution of Sasquatch in western North America: anything goes with ecological niche modelling. Journal of Biogeography, 36, 1623–1627.
    Direct Link:
  • McPherson, J.M., Jetz, W. & Rogers, D.J. (2004) The effects of species’ range sizes on the accuracy of distribution models: ecological phenomenon or statistical artefact? The Journal of Applied Ecology, 41, 811–823.
    Direct Link:
  • McRae, B.H., Schumaker, N.H., McKane, R.B., Busing, R.T., Solomon, A.M. & Burdick, C.A. (2008) A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change. Ecological Modelling, 219, 77–91.
  • Meentemeyer, R.K., Anacker, B.L., Mark, W. & Rizzo, D.M. (2008) Early detection of emerging forest disease using dispersal estimation and ecological niche modeling. Ecological Applications, 18, 377–390.
  • Melbourne, B.A., Davies, K.F., Margules, C.R., Lindenmayer, D.B., Saunders, D.A., Wissel, C. & Henle, K. (2004) Species survival in fragmented landscapes: where to from here? Biodiversity and Conservation, 13, 275–284.
  • Midgley, G.F., Hughes, G.O., Thuiller, W. & Rebelo, A.G. (2006) Migration rate limitations on climate change-induced range shifts in Cape Proteaceae. Diversity and Distributions, 12, 555–562.
    Direct Link:
  • Midgley, G.F., Davies, I.D., Albert, C.H., Altwegg, R., Hannah, L., Hughes, G.O., Ries, L.P. & Thuiller, W. (in press) BioMove – an integrated platform simulating the dynamic response of species to environmental change (Software Report). Ecography, doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2009.06000.x.
  • Mladenoff, D.J. & Baker, W.L. (1999) Development of forest and landscape modeling approaches. Spatial modeling of forest landscape change: approaches and applications, (ed. by D.J.Mladenoff and W.L.Baker), pp. 1–13. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  • Ohmann, J.L. & Gregory, M.J. (2002) Predictive mapping of forest composition and structure with direct gradient analysis and nearest neighbor imputation in coastal Oregon, U.S.A. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 32, 725–741.
  • Ostendorf, B., Hilbert, D.W. & Hopkins, M.S. (2001) The effect of climate change on tropical rainforest vegetation patterns. Ecological Modelling, 145, 211–224.
  • Parmesan, C. (2006) Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics, 37, 637–669.
  • Pearson, R.G., Dawson, T.P. & Liu, C. (2004) Modelling species distribution in Britain: a hierarchical integration of climate and land cover. Ecography, 27, 285–298.
    Direct Link:
  • Pearson, R.G., Thuiller, W., Araújo, M.B., Martinez-Meyer, E., Brotons, L., McClean, C., Miles, L., Segurado, P., Dawson, T.P. & Lees, D.C. (2006) Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction. Journal of Biogeography, 33, 1704–1711.
    Direct Link:
  • Peterson, A.T. (2003) Predicting the geography of species’ invasions via ecological niche modeling. Quarterly Review of Biology, 78, 419–433.
  • Phillips, S.J. & Dudík, M. (2008) Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography, 31, 161–175.
    Direct Link:
  • Pitelka, L.F., Gardiner, R.H., Ash, J. et al. (1997) Plant migration and climate change. American Scientist, 85, 464–473.
  • Possingham, H.P., Lindenmayer, D.B. & McCarthy, M.A. (2001) Population viability analysis. Encyclopedia of biodiversity, 4, 831–843.
  • Pulliam, H.R., Dunning, J.B. & Liu, J. (1992) Population dynamics in complex landscapes: a case study. Ecological Applications, 2, 165–177.
  • Randin, C.F., Dirnbock, T., Dullinger, S., Zimmermann, N.E., Zappa, M. & Guisan, A. (2006) Are niche-based species distribution models transferable in space? Journal of Biogeography, 33, 1689–1703.
    Direct Link:
  • Regan, H.M., Crookston, J.B., Swab, R., Franklin, J. & Lawson, D.M. (2010) Habitat fragmentation and altered fire regime create trade-offs for an obligate seeding shrub. Ecology, 91, 267–276.
  • Richardson, D.M. & Thuiller, W. (2007) Home away from home – objective mapping of high-risk source areas for plant introductions. Diversity and Distributions, 13, 299–312.
    Direct Link:
  • Richardson, D.M. & Whittaker, R.J. (2010) Conservation biogeography – foundations, concepts and challenges. Diversity and Distributions, 16, 313–320.
  • Root, T.L., Price, J.T., Hall, K.R., Schneider, S.H., Rosenzweig, C. & Pounds, J.A. (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature, 421, 57–60.
  • Scheller, R.M., Mladenoff, D.J., Thomas, R.C. & Sickley, T.A. (2005) Simulating the effects of fire reintroduction versus continued fire absence on forest composition and landscape structure in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, northern Minnesota, USA. Ecosystems, 8, 396–411.
  • Scheller, R.M., Van Tuyl, S., Clark, K., Hayden, N.G., Hom, J. & Mladenoff, D.J. (2008) Simulation of forest change in the New Jersey Pine Barrens under current and pre-colonial conditions. Forest Ecology and Management, 255, 1489–1500.
  • Schumaker, N.H. (1998) A user’s guide to the PATCH model. US Environmental Protection Agency, Environmental Research Laboratory, Corvalis, OR.
  • Scott, J.M., Heglund, P.J., Morrison, M.L., Haufler, J.B., Raphael, M.G., Wall, W.A. & Samson, F.B. (2002) Predicting species occurrences: issues of accuracy and scale, Island Press, Covelo, CA.
  • Segurado, P. & Araújo, M.B. (2004) An evaluation of methods for modelling species distributions. Journal of Biogeography, 31, 1555–1568.
    Direct Link:
  • Syphard, A.D., Franklin, J. & Keeley, J.E. (2006) Simulating the effects of frequent fire on southern California coastal shrublands. Ecological Applications, 16, 1744–1756.
  • Syphard, A.D., Clarke, K.C. & Franklin, J. (2007) Simulating fire frequency and urban growth in southern California coastal shrublands, USA. Landscape Ecology, 22, 431–445.
  • Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J., Collingham, Y.C., Erasmus, B.F.N., De Siqueira, M.F., Hannah, L., Hughes, L., Huntley, B., Van Jaarsveld, A.S., Midgley, G.F., Miles, L., Ortega-Huerta, M.A., Peterson, A.T., Phillips, O.L. & Williams, S.E. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427, 145–148.
  • Thuiller, W., Araújo, M.B., Pearson, R.G., Whittaker, R.J., Brotons, L. & Lavorel, S. (2004a) Biodiversity conservation - Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk. Nature, 430, doi:10.1038/nature02716.
  • Thuiller, W., Brotons, L., Araújo, M.B. & Lavorel, S. (2004b) Effects of restricting environmental range of data to project current and future species distributions. Ecography, 27, 165–172.
    Direct Link:
  • Thuiller, W., Lavorel, S., Araújo, M.B., Sykes, M.T. & Prentice, I.C. (2005) Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 102, 8245–8250.
  • Thuiller, W., Lavorel, S., Sykes, M.T. & Araújo, M.B. (2006) Using niche-based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe. Diversity and Distributions, 12, 49–60.
    Direct Link:
  • Thuiller, W., Albert, C., Araújo, M.B., Berry, P.M., Cabeza, M., Guisan, A., Hickler, T., Midgley, G.F., Paterson, J., Schurr, F.M., Sykes, M.T. & Zimmermann, N.E. (2008) Predicting global change impacts on plant species’ distributions: future challenges. Perspectives in Plant Ecology Evolution and Systematics, 9, 137–152.
  • Travis, J.M.J. (2003) Climate change and habitat destruction: a deadly anthropogenic cocktail. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences, 270, 467–473.
  • Whittaker, R.J., Araújo, M.B., Jepson, P., Ladle, R.J., Watson, J.E.M. & Willis, K.J. (2005) Conservation biogeography: assessment and prospect. Diversity and Distributions, 11, 3–23.
    Direct Link:
  • Van Wilgen, N.J., Roura-Pascual, N. & Richardson, D.M. (2009) A quantitative climate-match score for risk-assessment screening of reptile and amphibian introductions. Environmental Management, 44, 590–607.
  • Williams, J.W. & Jackson, S.T. (2007) Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 5, 475–482.
  • Williams, N.S.G., Hahs, A.K. & Morgan, J.W. (2008) A dispersal-constrained habitat suitability model for predicting invasion of alpine vegetation. Ecological Applications, 18, 347–359.
  • Wilson, R.J., Davies, Z.G. & Thomas, C.D. (2009) Modelling the effect of habitat fragmentation on range expansion in a butterfly. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276, 1421–1427.
  • Wintle, B.A., Elith, J. & Potts, J.M. (2005) Fauna habitat modelling and mapping: a review and case study in the Lower Hunter Central Coast region of NSW. Austral Ecology, 30, 719–738.
    Direct Link:
  • Xu, C.G., Gertner, G.Z. & Scheller, R.M. (2007) Potential effects of interaction between CO2 and temperature on forest landscape response to global warming. Global Change Biology, 13, 1469–1483.
    Direct Link:
  • Zurrell, D., Jeltsch, F., Dormann, C.F. & Schroder, B. (2009) Static species distribution models in dynamically changing systems: how good can predictions really be? Ecography, 32, 733–744.
    Direct Link:
View Full Article (HTML) Get PDF (303K)