Present address: N. J. B. Kraft, Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.
The geography of climate change: implications for conservation biogeography
Version of Record online: 23 MAR 2010
© 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Diversity and Distributions
Special Issue: Special Issue: Conservation biogeography - foundations, concepts and challenges
Volume 16, Issue 3, pages 476–487, May 2010
How to Cite
Ackerly, D. D., Loarie, S. R., Cornwell, W. K., Weiss, S. B., Hamilton, H., Branciforte, R. and Kraft, N. J. B. (2010), The geography of climate change: implications for conservation biogeography. Diversity and Distributions, 16: 476–487. doi: 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00654.x
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- Issue online: 13 APR 2010
- Version of Record online: 23 MAR 2010
Data S1 The geography of climate change: implications for conservation biogeography.
Figure S1 (a) Mean annual temperature and (b) annual temperature seasonality (standard deviation of monthly means), both derived from monthly means averaged over historical period (1971–2000). (c) Total annual precipitation (log10) and (d) annual precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation of monthly means), both derived from monthly means averaged over historical period (1971–2000). Data are from the PRISM interpolated climate database.
Figure S2 Change in (a) mean annual temperature and (b) temperature seasonality, averaged over 16 GCMs, A1b scenario, for 2070–2099. See Fig. S1a, b for baseline values.
Figure S3 Projected change in total annual precipitation for 16 GCMs, emissions scenario A1b. Mean values averaged over the domain range from −140 to 272 mm. Ranking them in order we chose the 4 and 14th models to represent drier and wetter scenarios. Drier: gfdl_cm2_1.1, −119 mm; Wetter: cccma_cgcm3_1.1, +81 mm. We also used the corresponding temperature projections for these models.
Figure S4 Change in mean annual temperature for (a) GFDL and (b) CCCMA, A1b scenario, for 2070–2099. Change in total annual precipitation for (c) GFDL (warmer-drier) and (d) CCCMA (warmer-wetter), A1b scenario, for 2070–2099. Temperature scale bars are same for Fig. S2a, and Fig. S4a,b.
Figure S5 Historical variability, measured as standard deviation of annual means from 1971–000 for (a) mean annual temperature and (b) annual precipitation (log10 transformed). Mean (range) are 0.58 (0.38–1.03) for temperature and 0.15 (0.088–0.326) for precipitation.
Figure S6 Two-dimensional histograms of climate space. (a) current; (b) warmer-drier scenario (GFDL_CM2, 2070–2099); C) warmer-wetter scenario (CCCMA_CGCM3, 2070–2099). See text for procedure used to select bin sizes for each axis. Color intensity corresponds to area occupied by each climate combination. Due to the highly skewed distribution of areas occupied (from 1 to 24,000 km2 for current climate), areas were log-transformed before applying the color scheme.
Figure S7 Maps of mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation (log10 transformed) for the 1971–2000 historical period (PRISM). Color breaks correspond to histogram bins in Fig. S6, illustrating geographic distribution of climates that are classified in the same bin for each variable.
Figure S8 Velocity (left) and direction (right) of climate change for temperature (a, d) and precipitation under the warmer-drier (b, e) and warmer-wetter (c, f) scenarios. Directions represent the direction of movement in space to offset projected changes in climate, and are shown using the compass wheel.
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